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Compare Stocks › LLY vs TDG

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. TDG is overvalued at $1328, with an intrinsic value of $970 and a margin of safety of -37%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57
VS
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated
$1328.31

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
TDG
  • ★TransDigm Group Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★TransDigm Group Incorporated scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 29.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
TDG
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.05 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 5.8x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
TDG
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$1.52B
0.93%
FCF Yield
2.05%
39.00
Trailing P/E
41.50
24.69
Forward P/E
28.29
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
10.95%
107.46%
ROE
N/A
82.83%
Gross Margin
59.72%
1.50
PEG Ratio
3.05
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
N/A
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.80
0.56%
Dividend Yield
0.00%
LLY: 8Ties: 1TDG: 1
LLYTDG

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

TDG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
TDG
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-6.62B
Δ Market Cap
+$40.74B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
3.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1143.11
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
TDG
37.0% Overvalued
Price is 37.0% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $1328.31
Fair Value: $969.52
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

TDG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1328?

+19.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +24.3%

The market implies +19.1% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +24.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
TDG
94/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
TDG
-2.38
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,580
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
TDG
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 98.2%Retail & Other 1.4%
No. of Institutional Holders1,479
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
TDG
0
Buys (3M)
3
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84M
SMALL ROBERT J
Director
$1,285
@ $1285.00 · 2026-02-25
LISMAN MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$1.22M
@ $1284.26 · 2026-02-06
LISMAN MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$2.62M
@ $1339.14 · 2025-11-14
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
TDG
2
Sells (3M)
19
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $67.07M
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.50M
@ $1154.09 · 2026-05-15
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.99M
@ $1280.46 · 2026-04-15
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.85M
@ $1243.70 · 2026-03-16
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$5.05M
@ $1293.88 · 2026-02-17
MURPHY PATRICK JOSEPH
Chief Operating Officer
$414,729
@ $1430.10 · 2026-02-02
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$5.58M
@ $1429.92 · 2026-01-15
MURPHY PATRICK JOSEPH
Chief Operating Officer
$385,419
@ $1329.03 · 2026-01-02
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$5.03M
@ $1290.52 · 2025-12-15
SMALL ROBERT J
Director
$6.06M
@ $1290.19 · 2025-12-10
MURPHY PATRICK JOSEPH
Chief Operating Officer
$391,807
@ $1351.06 · 2025-12-01
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$5.23M
@ $1340.00 · 2025-11-17
MURPHY PATRICK JOSEPH
Chief Operating Officer
$379,900
@ $1310.00 · 2025-11-03
MURPHY PATRICK JOSEPH
Chief Operating Officer
$785,761
@ $1354.76 · 2025-10-27
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$3.84M
@ $1279.59 · 2025-10-20
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$3.83M
@ $1276.07 · 2025-09-22
GRAFF MICHAEL S
Director
$2.47M
@ $1402.09 · 2025-08-26
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.22M
@ $1406.07 · 2025-08-20
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.79M
@ $1597.86 · 2025-07-21
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.27M
@ $1424.27 · 2025-06-20
WYNNE SARAH
Chief Financial Officer
$2.61M
@ $1450.00 · 2025-06-13
WYNNE SARAH
Chief Financial Officer
$4.65M
@ $1452.15 · 2025-06-12
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.30M
@ $1434.35 · 2025-05-20
HENNESSY SEAN P
Director
$6.75M
@ $1436.52 · 2025-05-20
WARREN JESSICA L
General Counsel
$698,250
@ $1425.00 · 2025-05-13
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.36M
@ $1321.80 · 2025-04-21
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$4.08M
@ $1360.04 · 2025-03-20
WARREN JESSICA L
General Counsel
$378,487
@ $1376.32 · 2025-03-04
REISS JOEL
Chief Operating Officer
$3.97M
@ $1323.02 · 2025-02-20
SMALL ROBERT J
Director
$4.83M
@ $1322.19 · 2025-02-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
TDG
FearGreed
😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
TDG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)
View LLY Full AnalysisView TDG Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs TDG

Is Eli Lilly and Company or TransDigm Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to TDG's -37.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $970 vs. $1328).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or TransDigm Group Incorporated?▼

TDG scores 94/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is TransDigm Group Incorporated in financial distress?▼

TDG's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or TransDigm Group Incorporated?▼

TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) generates a 2.1% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or TransDigm Group Incorporated?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus TDG's 10.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or TransDigm Group Incorporated's?▼

LLY's dividend earns a safety score of 64/100 (Safe), compared to TDG's 21/100 (Unsafe). LLY has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.