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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs State Street Corporation (STT): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, LLY is fairly valued at $1418, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1710 and a margin of safety of 17%. STT is undervalued at $170, with an intrinsic value of $704 and a margin of safety of 76%. Of the two, STT has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1417.54
VS
STT
State Street Corporation
$169.77

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 83.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
STT
  • ★State Street Corporation scores 74/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 20% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.63 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
STT
  • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.22 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $3.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
STT
Valuation
$9.34B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
0.74%
FCF Yield
N/A
46.01
Trailing P/E
13.87
28.66
Forward P/E
10.93
Quality & Moat
40.83%
ROIC
8.13%
86.02%
ROE
13.08%
83.63%
Gross Margin
0.00%
1.36
PEG Ratio
0.63
Balance Sheet Safety
1.11
Net Debt / Equity
N/A
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.96
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
0.49%
Dividend Yield
2.17%
LLY: 3Ties: 1STT: 4
LLYSTT

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

STT

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
STT
$2.01
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$4.45B
Δ Market Cap
+$8.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
17.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 17.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1417.54
Fair Value: $1709.89
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
STT
75.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 75.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $169.77
Fair Value: $704.31
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1418?

+23.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +34.7%

The market implies +23.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +34.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

STT

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
STT
74/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
STT
-2.42
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.5%Retail & Other 14.4%
No. of Institutional Holders5,906
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
STT
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 96.0%Retail & Other 3.6%
No. of Institutional Holders1,724
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
STT
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $312,475
PORTER BRIAN J
Director
$312,475
@ $124.99 · 2026-03-05
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
27
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.40B
JONSSON PATRIK
Officer
$7.64M
@ $1175.10 · 2026-08-17
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$2.37M
@ $1185.01 · 2026-08-10
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
STT
2
Sells (3M)
19
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $24.51M
HU W BRADFORD
Officer
$1.20M
@ $168.63 · 2026-10-26
O'HANLEY RONALD P.
Chief Executive Officer
$2.40M
@ $164.60 · 2026-10-20
SCHAEFER ELIZABETH
Officer
$90,595
@ $181.19 · 2026-08-03
HU W BRADFORD
Officer
$1.80M
@ $184.52 · 2026-07-24
O'HANLEY RONALD P.
Chief Executive Officer
$2.68M
@ $184.17 · 2026-07-21
HORGAN KATHRYN M
Officer
$1.02M
@ $184.17 · 2026-07-21
HORGAN KATHRYN M
Officer
$895,290
@ $162.78 · 2026-06-11
RICHARDS MICHAEL L
Officer
$243,210
@ $162.14 · 2026-06-08
O'HANLEY RONALD P.
Chief Executive Officer
$2.26M
@ $155.35 · 2026-05-26
HU W BRADFORD
Officer
$1.43M
@ $155.35 · 2026-05-26
SCHAEFER ELIZABETH
Officer
$75,435
@ $150.87 · 2026-05-13
RICHARDS MICHAEL L
Officer
$461,670
@ $153.89 · 2026-04-22
TAHIRI MOSTAPHA
Chief Operating Officer
$1.47M
@ $152.93 · 2026-04-22
PLANSKY JOHN
Officer
$2.00M
@ $124.32 · 2026-03-11
O'HANLEY RONALD P.
Chief Executive Officer
$3.66M
@ $125.70 · 2026-03-02
RICHARDS MICHAEL L
Officer
$319,775
@ $127.91 · 2026-02-24
HORGAN KATHRYN M
Officer
$721,420
@ $127.10 · 2026-02-23
AMBROSIUS JOERG
Officer
$1.12M
@ $128.00 · 2026-02-23
HORGAN KATHRYN M
Officer
$672,890
@ $118.55 · 2025-11-28
RICHARDS MICHAEL L
Officer
$175,860
@ $117.24 · 2025-10-27
RICHARDS MICHAEL L
Officer
$115,170
@ $115.17 · 2025-08-26
O'HANLEY RONALD P.
Chief Executive Officer
$1.50M
@ $112.39 · 2025-08-21
SCHAEFER ELIZABETH
Officer
$175,046
@ $111.07 · 2025-08-19
RICHARDS MICHAEL L
Officer
$108,197
@ $109.29 · 2025-07-22
HORGAN KATHRYN M
Officer
$1.07M
@ $96.61 · 2025-05-30
RICHARDS MICHAEL L
Officer
$70,530
@ $94.04 · 2025-05-09
SCHAEFER ELIZABETH
Officer
$117,936
@ $90.72 · 2025-05-06
TAHIRI MOSTAPHA
Chief Operating Officer
$360,725
@ $90.43 · 2025-05-02
BISEGNA ANTHONY C.
Officer
$310,590
@ $88.74 · 2025-05-01
PLANSKY JOHN
Officer
$1.03M
@ $88.83 · 2025-05-01
DE SAINT AIGNAN PATRICK
Director
$1.94M
@ $98.24 · 2025-02-28
AMBROSIUS JOERG
Officer
$288,202
@ $100.07 · 2025-02-19
DE SAINT AIGNAN PATRICK
Director
$802,479
@ $99.96 · 2025-02-18
FOGARTY ANN
Officer
$368,536
@ $99.47 · 2025-02-18
HORGAN KATHRYN M
Officer
$1.22M
@ $97.97 · 2024-11-25
FOGARTY ANN
Officer
$146,955
@ $97.97 · 2024-11-25
MILROD DONNA M
Officer
$9,631
@ $95.36 · 2024-11-18
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(73/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
STT
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (73)
STT
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
View LLY Full AnalysisView STT Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs STT

Is Eli Lilly and Company or State Street Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, STT trades at a 75.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $704 vs. price $170), compared to LLY's 17.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $1710 vs. $1418).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or State Street Corporation?▼

STT scores 74/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is State Street Corporation in financial distress?▼

STT's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or State Street Corporation?▼

LLY earns 40.8% ROIC versus STT's 8.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or State Street Corporation's?▼

STT's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). STT has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

LLY vs STT: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io