Compare Stocks › LLY vs SPG
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG)
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$963.33
VS
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.
$202.44
Rewards
LLY
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
SPG
- ★Gross margin of 81.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $134.48 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
LLY
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
SPG
- ⚠High leverage (4.35x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 6.0x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.27 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →LLY
SPG
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$3.20B
1.06%
FCF Yield
4.16%
34.25
Trailing P/E
14.29
22.06
Forward P/E
29.29
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
6.96%
66.16%
ROE
68.96%
82.83%
Gross Margin
81.90%
0.20
PEG Ratio
0.04
Balance Sheet Safety
1.39
Debt / Equity
4.35
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
6.03
0.65%
Dividend Yield
4.27%
LLY: 5Ties: 3SPG: 4
LLYSPG
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →LLY
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
SPG
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
SPG
$106.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$205.6M
Δ Market Cap
+$21.79B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →LLY
15.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 15.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $963.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $1145.81
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
SPG
40.4% Overvalued
Price is 40.4% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $202.44
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $144.22
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →LLY
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $963?
+18.3%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +29.7%
The market implies +18.3% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
SPG
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $202?
+9.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +14.5%
The market implies +9.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +14.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
SPG
60/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
SPG
-2.24
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.0%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,509
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
SPG
Insiders 1.8%Institutions 93.4%Retail & Other 4.8%
No. of Institutional Holders1,780
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
SPG
10
Buys (3M)
23
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $988,547
AEPPEL GLYN F
Director
$40,620
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
STEWART MARTA R
Director
$36,025
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
SELIG STEFAN M
Director
$37,863
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
ROE PEGGY FANG
Director
$14,888
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
JONES NINA P.
Director
$6,617
@ $183.81 · 2026-03-31
RODKIN GARY M
Director
$42,642
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S
Director
$90,246
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
LEWIS RANDALL J.
Director
$10,293
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
SMITH DANIEL C.
Director
$65,249
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
GLASSCOCK LARRY C
Director
$68,557
@ $183.80 · 2026-03-31
LEWIS RANDALL J.
Director
$100,258
@ $183.96 · 2025-12-15
LEWIS RANDALL J.
Director
$106,310
@ $180.80 · 2025-11-18
AEPPEL GLYN F
Director
$38,678
@ $185.95 · 2025-09-30
SELIG STEFAN M
Director
$36,260
@ $185.95 · 2025-09-30
ROE PEGGY FANG
Director
$14,132
@ $185.95 · 2025-09-30
STEWART MARTA R
Director
$7,205
@ $171.55 · 2025-08-14
AEPPEL GLYN F
Director
$37,274
@ $159.29 · 2025-06-30
STEWART MARTA R
Director
$33,132
@ $159.29 · 2025-06-30
ROE PEGGY FANG
Director
$13,699
@ $159.29 · 2025-06-30
JONES NINA P.
Director
$6,053
@ $159.29 · 2025-06-30
RODKIN GARY M
Director
$39,185
@ $159.29 · 2025-06-30
LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S
Director
$83,149
@ $159.29 · 2025-06-30
SMITH DANIEL C.
Director
$60,212
@ $159.29 · 2025-06-30
LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S
Director
$79,434
@ $164.80 · 2025-03-31
AEPPEL GLYN F
Director
$32,791
@ $167.30 · 2024-09-30
SELIG STEFAN M
Director
$30,449
@ $167.30 · 2024-09-30
JONES NINA P.
Director
$3,346
@ $167.30 · 2024-09-30
LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S
Director
$75,787
@ $167.30 · 2024-09-30
SMITH DANIEL C.
Director
$54,372
@ $167.30 · 2024-09-30
GLASSCOCK LARRY C
Director
$56,547
@ $167.30 · 2024-09-30
HUBBARD ALLAN B
Director
$61,901
@ $167.30 · 2024-09-30
SELIG STEFAN M
Director
$29,283
@ $150.17 · 2024-06-28
RODKIN GARY M
Director
$33,488
@ $150.17 · 2024-06-28
SMITH DANIEL C.
Director
$52,259
@ $150.17 · 2024-06-28
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →LLY
0
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84B
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
SPG
1
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.01M
RULLI JOHN
Officer
$2.01M
@ $200.88 · 2026-02-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →LLY
😐Neutral(55/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
SPG
😏Greed(67/100)
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (55)
SPG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (67)