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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Southern Company (The) (SO): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, LLY is undervalued at $1149, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. SO is overvalued at $95, with an intrinsic value of $15 and a margin of safety of -526%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84
VS
SO
Southern Company (The)
$94.54

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
SO
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.41 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
SO
  • ⚠Southern Company (The) scores only 26/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.41 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠High leverage (1.75x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
SO
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$-3.91B
N/A
FCF Yield
-3.60%
40.81
Trailing P/E
22.78
25.48
Forward P/E
19.22
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
5.91%
107.46%
ROE
11.48%
82.83%
Gross Margin
48.29%
1.61
PEG Ratio
2.41
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
1.75
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.20
0.60%
Dividend Yield
3.22%
LLY: 7Ties: 1SO: 3
LLYSO

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

SO

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$708.84
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
SO
$5.15
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$3.71B
Δ Market Cap
+$19.12B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1148.84
Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
SO
526.4% Overvalued
Price is 526.4% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $94.54
Fair Value: $15.09
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

SO

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
SO
26/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though margin stability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
SO
-2.65
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,685
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
SO
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 71.1%Retail & Other 28.8%
No. of Institutional Holders2,839
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
SO
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.63B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
SO
2
Sells (3M)
9
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $5.60M
KIM MATTHEW M.
Officer
$9,577
@ $95.77 · 2026-07-01
KIM MATTHEW M.
Officer
$9,116
@ $91.16 · 2026-06-01
KIM MATTHEW M.
Officer
$9,657
@ $96.57 · 2026-05-01
GREENE KIMBERLY S
Officer
$2.42M
@ $96.67 · 2026-03-30
CUMMISKEY CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$643,892
@ $96.55 · 2026-03-19
CONNALLY STANLEY W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$1.21M
@ $97.13 · 2026-03-18
KIM MATTHEW M.
Officer
$487,453
@ $95.15 · 2026-02-24
ANDERSON BRYAN D
Officer
$582,309
@ $93.83 · 2025-09-30
SPAINHOUR STERLING A. JR.
Officer
$226,148
@ $95.02 · 2025-08-11
GREENE KIMBERLY S
Officer
$1.25M
@ $95.00 · 2025-07-21
CUMMISKEY CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$1.10M
@ $89.54 · 2025-05-23
CONNALLY STANLEY W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$1.15M
@ $92.24 · 2025-03-31
GREENE KIMBERLY S
Chief Executive Officer
$3.00M
@ $93.12 · 2025-03-10
DAVIS MARTIN BERNARD
Chief Technology Officer
$100,811
@ $89.61 · 2025-03-03
WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C.
Chief Executive Officer
$2.20M
@ $90.13 · 2025-03-03
WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C.
Chief Executive Officer
$143,370
@ $90.00 · 2025-02-25
CUMMISKEY CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$81,184
@ $86.00 · 2025-02-19
PEOPLES JAMES JEFFREY
Chief Executive Officer
$1.25M
@ $86.00 · 2025-02-11
CUMMISKEY CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$69,739
@ $83.32 · 2025-02-04
DAVIS MARTIN BERNARD
Chief Technology Officer
$100,503
@ $85.90 · 2024-12-05
WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C.
Chief Executive Officer
$1.21M
@ $86.18 · 2024-12-05
SPAINHOUR STERLING A. JR.
Officer
$70,212
@ $88.54 · 2024-11-04
KERR JAMES Y. II
Chief Executive Officer
$2.69M
@ $89.64 · 2024-10-04
ANDERSON BRYAN D
Officer
$587,830
@ $89.54 · 2024-09-06
SPAINHOUR STERLING A. JR.
Officer
$211,796
@ $88.99 · 2024-08-05
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
SO
FearGreed
😐Neutral(57/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
SO
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)
View LLY Full AnalysisView SO Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs SO

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Southern Company (The) more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to SO's -526.4% margin of safety (intrinsic $15 vs. $95).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Southern Company (The)?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while SO scores 26/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Southern Company (The) in financial distress?▼

SO's Altman Z-Score of 0.9 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Southern Company (The)?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus SO's 5.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Southern Company (The)'s?▼

LLY's dividend earns a safety score of 64/100 (Safe), compared to SO's 63/100 (Safe). LLY has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

LLY vs SO: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io