Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, LLY is fairly valued at $1418, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1710 and a margin of safety of 17%. RCL is undervalued at $307, with an intrinsic value of $413 and a margin of safety of 26%. Of the two, RCL has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 83.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $9.02 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠High leverage (1.87x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠8 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1418?
The market implies +23.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +34.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs RCL
Is Eli Lilly and Company or Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, RCL trades at a 25.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $413 vs. price $307), compared to LLY's 17.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $1710 vs. $1418).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.?▼
LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while RCL scores 35/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. in financial distress?▼
RCL's Altman Z-Score of 2.2 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.?▼
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) generates a 0.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s -0.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.?▼
LLY earns 40.8% ROIC versus RCL's 14.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s?▼
RCL's dividend earns a safety score of 73/100 (Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). RCL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.