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Compare Stocks › LLY vs ORLY

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. ORLY is overvalued at $87, with an intrinsic value of $64 and a margin of safety of -35%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57
VS
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$86.84

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
ORLY
  • ★O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.08 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
ORLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $9.8M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 14.9% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
ORLY
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$1.33B
0.93%
FCF Yield
1.85%
39.00
Trailing P/E
28.19
24.69
Forward P/E
24.01
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
30.40%
107.46%
ROE
N/A
82.83%
Gross Margin
51.63%
1.50
PEG Ratio
1.94
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
N/A
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.08
0.56%
Dividend Yield
0.00%
LLY: 6Ties: 2ORLY: 2
LLYORLY

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

ORLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
ORLY
$3.32
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$7.27B
Δ Market Cap
+$24.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
3.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1143.11
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
ORLY
24.5% Overvalued
Price is 24.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $86.84
Fair Value: $69.74
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

ORLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $87?

+14.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +22.8%

The market implies +14.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +22.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
ORLY
89/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
ORLY
-2.49
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,580
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
ORLY
Insiders 0.5%Institutions 89.3%Retail & Other 10.2%
No. of Institutional Holders2,231
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
ORLY
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
ORLY
5
Sells (3M)
12
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $20.22M
HENDRICKSON THOMAS T
Director
$105,984
@ $88.32 · 2026-05-29
DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN
Officer
$7.83M
@ $92.60 · 2026-05-20
MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND
Director
$230,099
@ $88.67 · 2026-05-18
BECKHAM BRAD WALTER
Chief Executive Officer
$1.30M
@ $95.00 · 2026-05-08
HOPPER PHILIP M
Officer
$350,038
@ $94.60 · 2026-05-07
SASTRE MARIA AMALIA
Director
$92,681
@ $92.68 · 2026-02-27
MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW
Officer
$238,585
@ $101.31 · 2025-11-26
HOPPER PHILIP M
Officer
$354,361
@ $101.25 · 2025-11-26
FLETCHER JEREMY ADAM
Chief Financial Officer
$379,500
@ $100.00 · 2025-11-18
WILBANKS CARL DAVID
Officer
$9.07M
@ $102.54 · 2025-08-13
SASTRE MARIA AMALIA
Director
$60,877
@ $102.31 · 2025-08-13
REAVES SHARI LYNNE
Officer
$207,613
@ $103.81 · 2025-08-06
ODEMS RAMON PARISES
Officer
$2.72M
@ $1360.45 · 2025-05-30
MONTELLANO NAJERA JOSE A
Officer
$25,686
@ $1351.89 · 2025-05-29
MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND
Director
$275,800
@ $1379.00 · 2025-05-19
REAVES SHARI LYNNE
Officer
$115,611
@ $1344.31 · 2025-02-27
MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW
Officer
$2.11M
@ $1354.01 · 2025-02-27
CONN TAMARA F
General Counsel
$2.02M
@ $1326.78 · 2025-02-26
TARRANT JASON LEE
Officer
$2.67M
@ $1339.10 · 2025-02-25
HENSLEE GREGORY L
Chairman of the Board
$11.88M
@ $1319.95 · 2025-02-25
WEISS ANDREA M
Director
$325,184
@ $1311.23 · 2025-02-24
BECKHAM BRAD WALTER
Chief Executive Officer
$1.08M
@ $1300.00 · 2025-02-19
ROGERS CHARLES FRANCIS
Officer
$4.62M
@ $1335.31 · 2025-02-13
DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN
Officer
$6.67M
@ $1334.09 · 2025-02-13
MERZ MARK JOSEPH
Officer
$662,500
@ $1325.00 · 2025-02-12
SASTRE MARIA AMALIA
Director
$326,410
@ $1316.17 · 2025-02-12
CONN TAMARA F
General Counsel
$2.18M
@ $1245.36 · 2024-11-29
LOAFMAN JEFFERY THOMAS
Officer
$769,042
@ $1240.39 · 2024-11-25
WEISS ANDREA M
Director
$734,442
@ $1224.07 · 2024-11-22
O'REILLY DAVID E
Officer and Director
$6.15M
@ $1230.00 · 2024-11-11
KALE JUSTIN CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$119,229
@ $1157.56 · 2024-11-05
MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW
Officer
$1.75M
@ $1125.00 · 2024-08-27
CONN TAMARA F
General Counsel
$2.27M
@ $1135.00 · 2024-08-15
WILBANKS CARL DAVID
Officer
$5.63M
@ $1125.38 · 2024-08-14
PERLMAN DANA N
Director
$53,268
@ $1109.75 · 2024-08-07
JOHNSON GREGORY DALE
Director
$17.46M
@ $1136.16 · 2024-07-31
MERZ MARK JOSEPH
Officer
$462,560
@ $1120.00 · 2024-07-30
HOPPER PHILIP M
Officer
$1.15M
@ $1122.75 · 2024-07-30
HENSLEE GREGORY L
Chairman of the Board
$20.59M
@ $1127.55 · 2024-07-30
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
ORLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(44/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
ORLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (44)
View LLY Full AnalysisView ORLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs ORLY

Is Eli Lilly and Company or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to ORLY's -35.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $64 vs. $87).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

ORLY scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) generates a 1.8% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus ORLY's 30.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.