Compare Stocks › LLY vs ORCL

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, LLY is undervalued at $1138, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1598 and a margin of safety of 29%. ORCL is undervalued at $143, with an intrinsic value of $386 and a margin of safety of 63%. Of the two, ORCL has the wider margin of safety.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1137.82

ORCL

Oracle Corporation

$143.16

Rewards

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 83.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

ORCL

★Gross margin of 64.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.80 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

LLY

⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

ORCL

⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
⚠High leverage (1.97x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.67 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY

ORCL

Valuation

$11.07B

Free Cash Flow

$-45.85B

1.09%

FCF Yield

-10.59%

38.17

Trailing P/E

22.44

24.05

Forward P/E

13.02

Quality & Moat

38.43%

ROIC

8.55%

102.29%

ROE

41.19%

83.40%

Gross Margin

63.96%

1.12

PEG Ratio

0.80

Balance Sheet Safety

1.36

Net Debt / Equity

1.97

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

1.10

Net Debt / EBITDA

3.84

0.61%

Dividend Yield

1.40%

LLY: 7Ties: 1ORCL: 4

LLYORCL

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

ORCL

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY

$27.49

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$614.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

ORCL

$5.04

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$25.08B

Δ Market Cap

+$126.27B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY

28.8% Margin of Safety

Price is 28.8% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1137.82

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1597.97

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

ORCL

62.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 62.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $143.16

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $385.54

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1138?

+20.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +29.3%

The market implies +20.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

ORCL

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

ORCL

67/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

ORCL

-2.58

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%

No. of Institutional Holders5,890

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

ORCL

Insiders 38.6%Institutions 43.6%Retail & Other 17.8%

No. of Institutional Holders4,570

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

ORCL

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

FAIRHEAD RONA ALISON

Director

$112,258

@ $233.87 · 2025-07-07

MOORMAN CHARLES W IV

Director

$947,913

@ $172.35 · 2025-02-12

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.64B

JONSSON PATRIK

Officer

$7.64M

@ $1175.10 · 2026-08-17

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$2.37M

@ $1185.01 · 2026-08-10

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.80M

@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

ORCL

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $111.30M

HENLEY JEFFREY O

Officer and Director

$63.66M

@ $159.16 · 2026-06-24

LEVEY STUART A

Officer

$2.64M

@ $176.19 · 2026-04-16

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Chief Executive Officer

$1.55M

@ $155.23 · 2026-02-09

KEHRING DOUGLAS A

Officer

$6.82M

@ $194.89 · 2026-01-15

HURA MARK

Officer

$2.95M

@ $196.89 · 2025-12-24

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$437,064

@ $196.61 · 2025-12-23

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Chief Executive Officer

$1.93M

@ $192.52 · 2025-12-19

SMITH MARIA

Officer

$2.80M

@ $280.31 · 2025-10-23

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Chief Executive Officer

$11.07M

@ $276.64 · 2025-10-21

LEVEY STUART A

Officer

$5.93M

@ $300.00 · 2025-10-10

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$641,958

@ $288.91 · 2025-09-26

SICILIA MICHAEL D

Officer

$10.87M

@ $321.16 · 2025-09-23

SICILIA MICHAEL D

Officer

$5.12M

@ $313.60 · 2025-09-16

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

President

$6.31M

@ $297.11 · 2025-09-12

SICILIA MICHAEL D

Officer

$4.04M

@ $254.48 · 2025-08-05

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$770,656

@ $233.32 · 2025-07-16

SMITH MARIA

Officer

$2.33M

@ $232.99 · 2025-07-03

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$267.24M

@ $212.01 · 2025-06-27

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$794.64M

@ $212.50 · 2025-06-26

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$764.01M

@ $206.77 · 2025-06-23

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Officer

$3.21M

@ $214.10 · 2025-06-17

CONRADES GEORGE HENRY

Director

$1.74M

@ $213.49 · 2025-06-17

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$428,562

@ $149.53 · 2025-05-05

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$291,620

@ $145.81 · 2025-04-02

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$705.46M

@ $185.40 · 2025-01-24

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY

😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

ORCL

😨Fear(31/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)

ORCL

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (31)

View LLY Full Analysis View ORCL Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs ORCL

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Oracle Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, ORCL trades at a 62.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $386 vs. price $143), compared to LLY's 28.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $1598 vs. $1138).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Oracle Corporation?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while ORCL scores 67/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼

ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 1.7 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Oracle Corporation?▼

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) generates a 1.1% free cash flow yield, compared to Oracle Corporation's -10.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Oracle Corporation?▼

LLY earns 38.4% ROIC versus ORCL's 8.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Oracle Corporation's?▼

ORCL's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). ORCL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.