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Compare Stocks › LLY vs NOW

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, LLY is undervalued at $1152, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1598 and a margin of safety of 28%. NOW is overvalued at $138, with an intrinsic value of $84 and a margin of safety of -65%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1152.44
VS
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
$138.47

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 83.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
NOW
  • ★Gross margin of 74.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 27.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.22 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
NOW
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 3 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
NOW
Valuation
$11.07B
Free Cash Flow
$5.15B
1.08%
FCF Yield
3.60%
38.66
Trailing P/E
87.09
24.36
Forward P/E
27.66
Quality & Moat
38.43%
ROIC
2.26%
102.29%
ROE
14.24%
83.40%
Gross Margin
74.77%
1.12
PEG Ratio
1.01
Balance Sheet Safety
1.36
Net Debt / Equity
0.30
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.10
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.31
0.61%
Dividend Yield
0.00%
LLY: 8Ties: 1NOW: 3
LLYNOW

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

NOW

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
NOW
$16.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$4.90B
Δ Market Cap
+$81.66B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
27.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 27.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1152.44
Fair Value: $1597.97
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
NOW
64.9% Overvalued
Price is 64.9% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $138.47
Fair Value: $83.97
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1152?

+20.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +29.5%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

NOW

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $138?

+27.4%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +12.5%

The market implies +27.4% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +12.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
NOW
61/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
NOW
-2.87
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,890
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
NOW
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.8%Retail & Other 15.0%
No. of Institutional Holders3,128
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
NOW
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.00M
MCDERMOTT WILLIAM R
Chief Executive Officer
$3.00M
@ $104.60 · 2026-02-27
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.64B
JONSSON PATRIK
Officer
$7.64M
@ $1175.10 · 2026-08-17
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$2.37M
@ $1185.01 · 2026-08-10
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
NOW
4
Sells (3M)
27
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $9.26M
FIPPS PAUL G.
Officer
$300,777
@ $147.87 · 2026-08-31
CANNEY JACQUELINE P
Officer
$1.08M
@ $138.00 · 2026-08-28
CHAMBERLAIN PAUL EDWARD
Director
$365,851
@ $135.50 · 2026-08-27
CHAMBERLAIN PAUL EDWARD
Director
$188,400
@ $125.60 · 2026-08-13
BRIGGS TERESA
Director
$173,376
@ $108.70 · 2026-05-28
FIPPS PAUL G.
Officer
$103,238
@ $98.51 · 2026-05-18
SANDS ANITA M
Director
$1.48M
@ $90.14 · 2026-05-14
CHAMBERLAIN PAUL EDWARD
Director
$130,845
@ $87.23 · 2026-05-14
FIPPS PAUL G.
Officer
$13,661
@ $90.47 · 2026-05-08
CANNEY JACQUELINE P
Officer
$799,868
@ $89.60 · 2026-04-24
FIPPS PAUL G.
Officer
$376,142
@ $101.77 · 2026-02-23
FIPPS PAUL G.
Officer
$1.02M
@ $105.93 · 2026-02-18
MCBRIDE KEVIN THOMAS
Officer
$147,994
@ $105.71 · 2026-02-13
CHAMBERLAIN PAUL EDWARD
Director
$151,755
@ $101.17 · 2026-02-12
MASTANTUONO GINA
President
$352,750
@ $850.00 · 2025-12-05
MASTANTUONO GINA
President
$336,936
@ $808.00 · 2025-11-28
CHAMBERLAIN PAUL EDWARD
Director
$242,400
@ $808.00 · 2025-11-28
JACKSON LAWRENCE
Director
$214,708
@ $810.22 · 2025-11-28
ELMER RUSSELL S.
General Counsel
$160,155
@ $838.51 · 2025-11-18
TZITZON NICHOLAS
Officer
$431,736
@ $827.08 · 2025-11-18
CANNEY JACQUELINE P
Officer
$200,549
@ $839.12 · 2025-11-18
FIPPS PAUL G.
Officer
$249,353
@ $817.55 · 2025-11-18
MCBRIDE KEVIN THOMAS
Officer
$235,894
@ $842.48 · 2025-11-14
ELMER RUSSELL S.
General Counsel
$52,848
@ $852.39 · 2025-11-13
CANNEY JACQUELINE P
Officer
$56,257
@ $852.38 · 2025-11-13
ELMER RUSSELL S.
General Counsel
$164,997
@ $863.86 · 2025-11-10
CANNEY JACQUELINE P
Officer
$222,012
@ $863.86 · 2025-11-10
SANDS ANITA M
Director
$1.00M
@ $915.11 · 2025-08-29
MCDERMOTT WILLIAM R
Chief Executive Officer
$5.34M
@ $916.63 · 2025-08-28
ELMER RUSSELL S.
General Counsel
$1.50M
@ $884.26 · 2025-08-20
FIPPS PAUL G.
Officer
$1.30M
@ $895.32 · 2025-08-20
MCDERMOTT WILLIAM R
Chief Executive Officer
$1.43M
@ $900.00 · 2025-08-19
TZITZON NICHOLAS
Officer
$1.49M
@ $866.45 · 2025-08-18
MASTANTUONO GINA
President
$1.53M
@ $866.45 · 2025-08-18
CANNEY JACQUELINE P
Officer
$1.35M
@ $866.45 · 2025-08-18
MCBRIDE KEVIN THOMAS
Officer
$238,496
@ $851.77 · 2025-08-15
CHAMBERLAIN PAUL EDWARD
Director
$258,000
@ $860.00 · 2025-08-14
MASTANTUONO GINA
President
$72,288
@ $860.57 · 2025-08-13
CANNEY JACQUELINE P
Officer
$57,658
@ $860.57 · 2025-08-13
MASTANTUONO GINA
President
$256,490
@ $878.39 · 2025-08-08
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
NOW
FearGreed
😐Neutral(44/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
NOW
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (44)
View LLY Full AnalysisView NOW Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs NOW

Is Eli Lilly and Company or ServiceNow, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 27.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1598 vs. price $1152), compared to NOW's -64.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $84 vs. $138).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while NOW scores 61/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼

ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) generates a 3.6% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 1.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼

LLY earns 38.4% ROIC versus NOW's 2.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

LLY vs NOW: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io