Compare Stocks › LLY vs NOC

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. NOC is fairly valued at $522, with an intrinsic value of $531 and a margin of safety of 2%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1098.57

NOC

Northrop Grumman Corporation

$521.50

Rewards

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

NOC

★Free cash flow has grown at a 31.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Trailing P/E of 16.3x is 26% below the historical average of 22.0x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.

Risks

LLY

⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

NOC

⚠Gross margin of 20.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠PEG ratio of 4.11 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠18 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY

NOC

Valuation

$9.16B

Free Cash Flow

$3.31B

0.93%

FCF Yield

4.46%

39.00

Trailing P/E

16.34

24.69

Forward P/E

17.30

Quality & Moat

37.80%

ROIC

11.28%

107.46%

ROE

28.51%

82.83%

Gross Margin

20.52%

1.50

PEG Ratio

4.11

Balance Sheet Safety

1.22

Net Debt / Equity

0.90

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

1.05

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.12

0.56%

Dividend Yield

1.71%

LLY: 6Ties: 1NOC: 5

LLYNOC

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

NOC

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY

$27.49

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$614.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

NOC

$-0.38

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$6.82B

Δ Market Cap

$-2.60B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY

3.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1098.57

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1143.11

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

NOC

1.8% Margin of Safety

Price is 1.8% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $521.50

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $531.22

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

NOC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $522?

+8.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +11.8%

The market implies +8.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +11.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

NOC

68/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

NOC

-2.45

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%

No. of Institutional Holders5,580

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

NOC

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.4%Retail & Other 15.4%

No. of Institutional Holders2,307

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $4.54M

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

NOC

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.86B

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.33M

@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$716,410

@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$936,550

@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

NOC

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $26.77M

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$54,310

@ $571.68 · 2026-05-04

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$650,385

@ $745.00 · 2026-03-02

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$1.26M

@ $720.00 · 2026-02-27

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$372,541

@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$141,158

@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$107,748

@ $732.98 · 2026-02-19

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$1.58M

@ $719.62 · 2026-02-18

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$223,414

@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$547,294

@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$501,609

@ $701.55 · 2026-02-17

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$550,411

@ $702.95 · 2026-02-13

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$14.18M

@ $708.82 · 2026-02-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$65,029

@ $684.52 · 2026-02-02

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$6.04M

@ $604.50 · 2026-01-06

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$46,649

@ $555.35 · 2025-12-09

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$54,716

@ $564.08 · 2025-11-24

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$382,725

@ $525.00 · 2025-07-17

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,720

@ $506.67 · 2025-07-07

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$368,706

@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13

FLEMING ROBERT J

Officer

$1.77M

@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$5.65M

@ $502.18 · 2025-06-13

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,120

@ $488.48 · 2025-06-05

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$485,590

@ $490.00 · 2025-06-04

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$349,920

@ $480.00 · 2025-05-30

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,293

@ $493.73 · 2025-05-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,850

@ $480.30 · 2025-04-07

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$1.78M

@ $475.65 · 2025-03-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,631

@ $473.67 · 2025-03-05

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$213,788

@ $460.75 · 2025-02-28

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$875,873

@ $453.59 · 2025-02-24

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$444,098

@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$82,383

@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$395,916

@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$130,488

@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,843

@ $480.09 · 2025-02-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,072

@ $456.73 · 2025-01-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,886

@ $481.39 · 2024-12-05

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$616,067

@ $532.93 · 2024-11-11

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,833

@ $510.09 · 2024-11-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,675

@ $535.61 · 2024-10-07

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,151

@ $519.73 · 2024-09-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,546

@ $516.06 · 2024-08-29

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$695,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-08-02

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$1.30M

@ $469.25 · 2024-07-26

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY

😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

NOC

😨Fear(36/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)

NOC

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (36)

View LLY Full Analysis View NOC Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs NOC

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Northrop Grumman Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to NOC's 1.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $531 vs. $522).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Northrop Grumman Corporation?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while NOC scores 68/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Northrop Grumman Corporation in financial distress?▼

NOC's Altman Z-Score of 3.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Northrop Grumman Corporation?▼

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) generates a 4.5% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Northrop Grumman Corporation?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus NOC's 11.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Northrop Grumman Corporation's?▼

NOC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). NOC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.