Compare Stocks › LLY vs NOC
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$917.50
VS
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
$714.15
Rewards
LLY
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 83.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
NOC
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 31.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
Risks
LLY
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $330.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
NOC
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠13 insider sales totaling $26.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →LLY
NOC
Valuation
$5.96B
Free Cash Flow
$2.90B
0.73%
FCF Yield
2.85%
40.00
Trailing P/E
24.57
21.79
Forward P/E
23.78
Quality & Moat
32.84%
ROIC
15.85%
77.78%
ROE
25.08%
83.04%
Gross Margin
19.82%
0.78
PEG Ratio
1.62
Balance Sheet Safety
1.65
Debt / Equity
1.07
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.15
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.98
0.68%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
LLY: 7Ties: 1NOC: 4
LLYNOC
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →LLY
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
NOC
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →LLY
$27.47
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$613.62B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
NOC
$-0.38
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$6.82B
Δ Market Cap
$-2.60B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →LLY
12.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 12.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $917.50
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $1048.80
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
NOC
28.5% Overvalued
Price is 28.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $714.15
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $555.65
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →LLY
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $918?
+17.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +35.1%
The market implies +17.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +35.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
NOC
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $714?
+12.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +17.1%
The market implies +12.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
NOC
68/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
NOC
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 15.1%
No. of Institutional Holders5,561
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
NOC
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 83.5%Retail & Other 16.3%
No. of Institutional Holders2,192
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
NOC
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →LLY
5
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84B
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$818,240
@ $818.24 · 2025-03-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$204.33M
@ $928.76 · 2025-03-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
NOC
13
Sells (3M)
25
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $35.39M
SIMPSON KATHRYN G.
General Counsel
$650,385
@ $745.00 · 2026-03-02
ROEDER ROSHAN S.
Officer
$1.26M
@ $720.00 · 2026-02-27
HARDESTY MICHAEL A
Officer
$107,748
@ $732.98 · 2026-02-19
ROEDER ROSHAN S.
Officer
$372,541
@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19
SIMPSON KATHRYN G.
General Counsel
$141,158
@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19
DAVIES BENJAMIN R
Officer
$1.58M
@ $719.62 · 2026-02-18
HARDESTY MICHAEL A
Officer
$501,609
@ $701.55 · 2026-02-17
ROEDER ROSHAN S.
Officer
$223,414
@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17
SIMPSON KATHRYN G.
General Counsel
$547,294
@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17
HARDESTY MICHAEL A
Officer
$550,411
@ $702.95 · 2026-02-13
WARDEN KATHY J
Chief Executive Officer
$14.18M
@ $708.82 · 2026-02-06
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$65,029
@ $684.52 · 2026-02-02
WARDEN KATHY J
Chief Executive Officer
$6.04M
@ $604.50 · 2026-01-06
ROEDER ROSHAN S.
Officer
$46,649
@ $555.35 · 2025-12-09
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$54,716
@ $564.08 · 2025-11-24
JONES THOMAS H.
Officer
$382,725
@ $525.00 · 2025-07-17
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$16,720
@ $506.67 · 2025-07-07
JONES THOMAS H.
Officer
$368,706
@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13
FLEMING ROBERT J
Officer
$1.77M
@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13
WARDEN KATHY J
Chief Executive Officer
$5.65M
@ $502.18 · 2025-06-13
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$16,120
@ $488.48 · 2025-06-05
ROEDER ROSHAN S.
Officer
$485,590
@ $490.00 · 2025-06-04
JONES THOMAS H.
Officer
$349,920
@ $480.00 · 2025-05-30
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$16,293
@ $493.73 · 2025-05-05
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$15,850
@ $480.30 · 2025-04-07
WARDEN KATHY J
Chief Executive Officer
$1.78M
@ $475.65 · 2025-03-06
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$15,631
@ $473.67 · 2025-03-05
DAVIES BENJAMIN R
Officer
$213,788
@ $460.75 · 2025-02-28
HARDESTY MICHAEL A
Officer
$875,873
@ $453.59 · 2025-02-24
SIMPSON KATHRYN G.
General Counsel
$444,098
@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20
DAVIES BENJAMIN R
Officer
$82,383
@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20
SIMPSON KATHRYN G.
General Counsel
$395,916
@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18
DAVIES BENJAMIN R
Officer
$130,488
@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$15,843
@ $480.09 · 2025-02-05
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$15,072
@ $456.73 · 2025-01-06
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$15,886
@ $481.39 · 2024-12-05
DAVIES BENJAMIN R
Officer
$616,067
@ $532.93 · 2024-11-11
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$16,833
@ $510.09 · 2024-11-05
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$17,675
@ $535.61 · 2024-10-07
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$17,151
@ $519.73 · 2024-09-05
WELSH MARK A. III
Director
$17,546
@ $516.06 · 2024-08-29
JONES THOMAS H.
Officer
$695,000
@ $500.00 · 2024-08-02
JONES THOMAS H.
Officer
$1.30M
@ $469.25 · 2024-07-26
ROEDER ROSHAN S.
Officer
$429,429
@ $471.90 · 2024-05-20
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →LLY
😐Neutral(43/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
NOC
😏Greed(61/100)
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (43)
NOC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)