Compare Stocks › LLY vs MRNA
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$963.33
VS
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
$45.37
Rewards
LLY
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
MRNA
Risks
LLY
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
MRNA
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 61.0 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of -69.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Moderna, Inc. scores only 17/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →LLY
MRNA
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$-20.00M
1.06%
FCF Yield
-0.11%
34.25
Trailing P/E
N/A
22.06
Forward P/E
-9.86
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
-26.47%
66.16%
ROE
-38.09%
82.83%
Gross Margin
-69.89%
0.20
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
1.39
Debt / Equity
0.18
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
0.65%
Dividend Yield
N/A
LLY: 5Ties: 1MRNA: 2
LLYMRNA
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →LLY
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
MRNA
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MRNA
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-11.10B
Δ Market Cap
$-57.53B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →LLY
15.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 15.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $963.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $1145.81
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MRNA
633.5% Overvalued
Price is 633.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $45.37
Strongly undervalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $6.19
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →LLY
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $963?
+18.3%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +29.7%
The market implies +18.3% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
MRNA
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
MRNA
17/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
No durable competitive advantage detected. The business shows limited evidence of pricing power, consistent returns, or capital efficiency.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MRNA
-3.72
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.0%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,509
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MRNA
Insiders 7.3%Institutions 76.9%Retail & Other 15.8%
No. of Institutional Holders992
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MRNA
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
$5.00M
@ $31.22 · 2025-03-03
SAGAN PAUL L
Director
$1.00M
@ $31.76 · 2025-03-03
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →LLY
0
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84B
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MRNA
2
Sells (3M)
4
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $8.56M
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$726,047
@ $52.29 · 2026-03-02
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$7.81M
@ $48.84 · 2026-02-23
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS
Director
$13,910
@ $27.60 · 2025-12-09
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS
Director
$8,736
@ $28.00 · 2025-06-11
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$23,637
@ $44.68 · 2024-12-09
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$4,849
@ $43.29 · 2024-12-03
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$13,595
@ $43.30 · 2024-12-03
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$60,675
@ $42.79 · 2024-11-29
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$60,761
@ $42.79 · 2024-11-29
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$12,452
@ $42.79 · 2024-11-29
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$12,771
@ $46.10 · 2024-11-11
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$42,986
@ $60.12 · 2024-10-07
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$40,539
@ $73.57 · 2024-09-09
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$24,483
@ $76.99 · 2024-09-03
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$8,777
@ $76.99 · 2024-09-03
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$12,640
@ $78.02 · 2024-08-29
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$23,408
@ $78.03 · 2024-08-29
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$12,640
@ $78.02 · 2024-08-29
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$104,881
@ $79.40 · 2024-08-28
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$104,722
@ $79.39 · 2024-08-28
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$21,363
@ $84.11 · 2024-08-12
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$1.80M
@ $119.96 · 2024-07-31
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$1.77M
@ $117.80 · 2024-07-24
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$1.84M
@ $122.84 · 2024-07-17
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$1.82M
@ $121.12 · 2024-07-15
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$1.76M
@ $117.08 · 2024-07-10
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$81,465
@ $118.24 · 2024-07-08
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$1.91M
@ $127.22 · 2024-06-26
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$2.00M
@ $133.57 · 2024-06-18
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$2.07M
@ $138.16 · 2024-06-17
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$2.21M
@ $147.20 · 2024-06-12
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$766,785
@ $148.09 · 2024-06-10
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$2.27M
@ $151.25 · 2024-06-05
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$97,237
@ $140.72 · 2024-06-03
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$47,704
@ $140.72 · 2024-06-03
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$17,168
@ $140.72 · 2024-06-03
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$26,444
@ $144.50 · 2024-05-29
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$49,276
@ $144.50 · 2024-05-29
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$26,444
@ $144.50 · 2024-05-29
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$2.90M
@ $145.08 · 2024-05-29
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
Officer
$210,566
@ $162.47 · 2024-05-28
MOCK JAMES M
Chief Financial Officer
$105,283
@ $162.47 · 2024-05-28
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$2.36M
@ $157.57 · 2024-05-22
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$1.91M
@ $127.49 · 2024-05-15
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$1.91M
@ $127.32 · 2024-05-15
HOGE STEPHEN
President
$30,844
@ $120.96 · 2024-05-10
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
$1.83M
@ $121.68 · 2024-05-08
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →LLY
😐Neutral(55/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MRNA
😨Fear(35/100)
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (55)
MRNA
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (35)