Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs MetLife, Inc. (MET): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, LLY is fairly valued at $1418, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1710 and a margin of safety of 17%. MET is overvalued at $100, with an intrinsic value of $89 and a margin of safety of -13%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 83.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★MetLife, Inc. scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 16% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.53 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠Gross margin of 24.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.23 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1418?
The market implies +23.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +34.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs MET
Is Eli Lilly and Company or MetLife, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 17.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1710 vs. price $1418), compared to MET's -13.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $89 vs. $100).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or MetLife, Inc.?▼
MET scores 100/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is MetLife, Inc. in financial distress?▼
MET's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or MetLife, Inc.?▼
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) generates a 0.7% free cash flow yield, compared to MetLife, Inc.'s -33.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or MetLife, Inc.?▼
LLY earns 40.8% ROIC versus MET's 4.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or MetLife, Inc.'s?▼
MET's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). MET has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.