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Compare Stocks › LLY vs LYB

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. LYB is overvalued at $60, with an intrinsic value of $46 and a margin of safety of -30%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57
VS
LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
$60.07

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
LYB

    Risks

    LLY
    • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
    LYB
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 13.6 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Gross margin of 9.2% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠FCF yield of 5.1% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    LLY
    LYB
    Valuation
    $9.16B
    Free Cash Flow
    $987.00M
    0.93%
    FCF Yield
    5.09%
    39.00
    Trailing P/E
    N/A
    24.69
    Forward P/E
    7.98
    Quality & Moat
    37.80%
    ROIC
    3.32%
    107.46%
    ROE
    -6.01%
    82.83%
    Gross Margin
    9.23%
    1.50
    PEG Ratio
    1.53
    Balance Sheet Safety
    1.22
    Net Debt / Equity
    1.15
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    1.05
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.27
    0.56%
    Dividend Yield
    6.58%
    LLY: 5Ties: 2LYB: 4
    LLYLYB

    Historical Fundamentals

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    LLY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    LYB

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    LLY
    $27.49
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $22.34B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$614.01B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    LYB
    N/A
    Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
    Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
    Σ Retained
    $-2.37B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-13.12B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    LLY
    3.9% Margin of Safety
    Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $1098.57
    Fair Value: $1143.11
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    LYB
    34.4% Margin of Safety
    Price is 34.4% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $60.07
    Fair Value: $91.60
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    LLY

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

    +20.0%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +31.4%

    The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    LYB

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $60?

    +13.9%
    Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

    Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

    Economic Moat Score

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    LLY
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
    LYB
    32/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    LLY
    -1.83
    Possible Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    LYB
    -2.83
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    LLY
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders5,580
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    LYB
    Insiders 20.2%Institutions 78.1%Retail & Other 1.7%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,261
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    LLY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    8
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.54M
    MONTARCE LUCAS E
    Chief Financial Officer
    $494,627
    @ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
    VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
    Officer
    $647,360
    @ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
    ALVAREZ RALPH
    Director
    $500,473
    @ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
    FYRWALD J. ERIK
    Director
    $1.01M
    @ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
    RICKS DAVID A
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.05M
    @ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
    SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
    Officer
    $634,405
    @ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
    SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
    Director
    $75,018
    @ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
    JACKSON JAMERE
    Director
    $127,913
    @ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    LYB
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $246,621
    FOLEY KIMBERLY A
    Officer
    $246,621
    @ $43.56 · 2025-11-12
    HANLEY MICHAEL SEAN
    Director
    $199,535
    @ $57.01 · 2025-05-05
    HANLEY MICHAEL SEAN
    Director
    $270,196
    @ $72.05 · 2025-03-12
    BUCHANAN ROBIN WILLIAM TURNBULL
    Director
    $380,300
    @ $76.06 · 2024-12-13
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    LLY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    41
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $3.86B
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $2.88M
    @ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $15.75M
    @ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $322.38M
    @ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $1.51M
    @ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.90M
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $2.85M
    @ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260,409
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.08M
    @ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $17.34M
    @ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $152.06M
    @ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $111.50M
    @ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $39.07M
    @ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $176.10M
    @ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $62.31M
    @ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $10.19M
    @ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $183.33M
    @ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $48.02M
    @ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $308.41M
    @ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $279.35M
    @ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $16.41M
    @ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $167.09M
    @ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $38.47M
    @ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $479,038
    @ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $266.65M
    @ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260.17M
    @ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.16M
    @ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $9.04M
    @ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.23M
    @ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $22.72M
    @ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $137.04M
    @ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.22M
    @ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $92.50M
    @ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $107.36M
    @ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $177.29M
    @ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.79M
    @ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $18.06M
    @ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $81.53M
    @ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $734,930
    @ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $783,762
    @ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $225.42M
    @ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $716,410
    @ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $936,550
    @ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    LYB
    1
    Sells (3M)
    2
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.81M
    KAPLAN JEFFREY A
    Officer
    $741,573
    @ $74.16 · 2026-05-13
    VANACKER PETER Z E
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.07M
    @ $53.57 · 2025-08-15
    FRIEDRICHS DALE D
    Officer
    $480,997
    @ $96.78 · 2024-08-20
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    LLY
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    LYB
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(38/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    LLY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    LYB
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (38)
    View LLY Full AnalysisView LYB Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs LYB

    Is Eli Lilly and Company or LyondellBasell Industries N.V. more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to LYB's -30.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $46 vs. $60).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or LyondellBasell Industries N.V.?▼

    LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while LYB scores 32/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. in financial distress?▼

    LYB's Altman Z-Score of 1.8 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or LyondellBasell Industries N.V.?▼

    LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) generates a 5.1% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or LyondellBasell Industries N.V.?▼

    LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus LYB's 3.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s?▼

    LLY's dividend earns a safety score of 64/100 (Safe), compared to LYB's 41/100 (Borderline). LLY has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.