Lennox International, Inc. (LII) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, LII is undervalued at $416, with a DCF intrinsic value of $557 and a margin of safety of 25%. UNH is overvalued at $414, with an intrinsic value of $371 and a margin of safety of -12%. Of the two, LII has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Lennox International, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Lennox International, Inc. scores 74/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 47.0% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠High leverage (1.52x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Beneish M-Score of -1.37 flags financial patterns consistent with potential earnings manipulation — warrants further investigation.
- ⚠8 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 6.0% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $416?
The market implies +7.9% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +11.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $414?
The market implies +14.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +6.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Mr. Market is panicking — potential buying opportunity if fundamentals are strong"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: LII vs UNH
Is Lennox International, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, LII trades at a 25.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $557 vs. price $416), compared to UNH's -11.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $371 vs. $414).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Lennox International, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
LII scores 74/100 (Wide moat), while UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated in financial distress?▼
UNH's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LII scores 7.5 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Lennox International, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) generates a 6.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Lennox International, Inc.'s 4.4%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Lennox International, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
LII earns 28.8% ROIC versus UNH's 14.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Lennox International, Inc.'s or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼
LII's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UNH's 84/100 (Very Safe). LII has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.
Does Lennox International, Inc. have accounting red flags?▼
LII's Beneish M-Score of -1.4 flags it as a likely earnings manipulator (above the -1.78 threshold). By contrast, UNH scores -2.5, within the normal range. The Beneish model detects aggressive accounting through eight financial ratios.