Compare Stocks › KR vs MA

The Kroger Co. (KR) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, KR is overvalued at $57, with a DCF intrinsic value of $2 and a margin of safety of -3469%. MA is fairly valued at $490, with an intrinsic value of $571 and a margin of safety of 14%. Of the two, MA has the wider margin of safety.

The Kroger Co.

$56.61

Mastercard Incorporated

$489.79

Rewards

★Free cash flow has grown at a 34.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Share count has been reduced by 14% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
★FCF yield of 9.7% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

⚠ROIC has declined by 5.2 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
⚠Gross margin of 24.1% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Trailing P/E of 36.8x is 66% above the historical average of 22.2x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

⚠High leverage (1.60x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠12 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

Key Valuation Metrics

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Valuation

$3.40B

Free Cash Flow

$16.15B

9.74%

FCF Yield

3.73%

36.76

Trailing P/E

28.31

10.08

Forward P/E

21.50

Quality & Moat

13.08%

ROIC

63.51%

14.41%

ROE

232.08%

24.10%

Gross Margin

100.00%

0.60

PEG Ratio

1.54

Balance Sheet Safety

3.60

Net Debt / Equity

1.60

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

2.64

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.50

2.18%

Dividend Yield

0.69%

KR: 4Ties: 1MA: 7

KRMA

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$0.64

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Mediocre Allocator

Σ Retained

$3.28B

Δ Market Cap

+$2.09B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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3468.9% Overvalued

Price is 3468.9% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $56.61

Strongly undervalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1.59

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

14.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 14.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $489.79

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $571.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $57?

+20.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +5.1%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +5.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $490?

+13.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.0%

The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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56/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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-3.11

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 8.4%Institutions 81.1%Retail & Other 10.5%

No. of Institutional Holders1,838

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.6%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,804

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $14.42M

MOORE CLYDE R

Director

$272,834

@ $71.61 · 2025-07-16

MOORE CLYDE R

Director

$1.89M

@ $70.50 · 2025-07-11

ADCOCK MARY ELLEN

Officer

$2.44M

@ $71.16 · 2025-06-27

ARREAGA GABRIEL

Officer

$2.75M

@ $72.44 · 2025-06-25

COSSET YAEL

Officer

$5.23M

@ $73.49 · 2025-06-23

FIKE CARIN L

Officer and Treasurer

$1.22M

@ $73.79 · 2025-06-23

MASSA TIMOTHY A

Officer

$622,710

@ $74.00 · 2025-06-23

WHEATLEY CHRISTINE STRICK

Officer

$2.16M

@ $72.07 · 2025-04-23

COSSET YAEL

Officer

$2.19M

@ $73.00 · 2025-04-22

MASSA TIMOTHY A

Officer

$1.65M

@ $73.00 · 2025-04-22

ARREAGA GABRIEL

Officer

$995,866

@ $71.82 · 2025-04-21

NICHOLS BRIAN W

Officer

$72,030

@ $72.03 · 2025-04-21

FOLEY TODD A

Officer

$989,442

@ $70.67 · 2025-04-17

JABBAR VALERIE L

Officer

$2.16M

@ $69.08 · 2025-04-16

WHEATLEY CHRISTINE STRICK

Officer

$2.08M

@ $69.44 · 2025-04-04

KIMBALL KENNETH C.

Officer

$719,081

@ $65.37 · 2025-03-21

ARREAGA GABRIEL

Officer

$1.05M

@ $65.63 · 2025-03-19

COSSET YAEL

Chief Technology Officer

$1.17M

@ $66.19 · 2025-03-17

NICHOLS BRIAN W

Officer

$94,933

@ $65.88 · 2025-03-17

COSSET YAEL

Chief Technology Officer

$691,190

@ $65.76 · 2025-03-14

NICHOLS BRIAN W

Officer

$86,723

@ $66.71 · 2025-03-13

MASSA TIMOTHY A

Officer

$1.97M

@ $66.56 · 2025-03-13

ADCOCK MARY ELLEN

Officer

$6.90M

@ $66.39 · 2025-03-13

COSSET YAEL

Chief Investment Officer

$7.84M

@ $68.08 · 2025-03-10

FOLEY TODD A

Chief Financial Officer

$1.87M

@ $66.62 · 2025-03-07

FOLEY TODD A

Chief Financial Officer

$1.04M

@ $61.44 · 2024-12-19

AITKEN STUART W

Officer

$8.38M

@ $63.18 · 2024-12-12

COSSET YAEL

Chief Technology Officer

$1.17M

@ $58.39 · 2024-12-10

COSSET YAEL

Chief Technology Officer

$1.76M

@ $58.54 · 2024-12-09

MASSA TIMOTHY A

Officer

$1.56M

@ $60.12 · 2024-12-06

NICHOLS BRIAN W

Officer

$386,248

@ $55.80 · 2024-10-07

JABBAR VALERIE L

Officer

$167,730

@ $55.91 · 2024-09-23

FIKE CARIN L

Officer and Treasurer

$167,269

@ $55.57 · 2024-09-17

NICHOLS BRIAN W

Officer

$222,800

@ $55.70 · 2024-09-17

NICHOLS BRIAN W

Officer

$109,060

@ $54.53 · 2024-07-19

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.22M

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

LING HAI

Officer

$1.35M

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$512,006

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$4.07M

@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😨Fear(27/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😐Neutral(47/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (27)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)

View KR Full Analysis View MA Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: KR vs MA

Is The Kroger Co. or Mastercard Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MA trades at a 14.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $571 vs. price $490), compared to KR's -3468.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $2 vs. $57).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, The Kroger Co. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while KR scores 56/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, The Kroger Co. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

The Kroger Co. (KR) generates a 9.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Mastercard Incorporated's 3.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, The Kroger Co. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA earns 63.5% ROIC versus KR's 13.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, The Kroger Co.'s or Mastercard Incorporated's?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to KR's 64/100 (Safe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.