Compare Stocks › KEYS vs LLY

Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, KEYS is overvalued at $319, with a DCF intrinsic value of $212 and a margin of safety of -50%. LLY is undervalued at $1149, with an intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

KEYS

Keysight Technologies, Inc.

$319.08

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1148.84

Rewards

KEYS

★Gross margin of 62.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 10.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Altman Z-Score of 5.73 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

KEYS

⚠ROIC has declined by 10.8 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
⚠FCF yield of 2.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Trailing P/E of 51.3x is 45% above the historical average of 35.3x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

LLY

⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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KEYS

LLY

Valuation

$1.09B

Free Cash Flow

$9.16B

1.99%

FCF Yield

N/A

51.30

Trailing P/E

40.81

26.77

Forward P/E

25.48

Quality & Moat

9.95%

ROIC

37.80%

18.17%

ROE

107.46%

62.14%

Gross Margin

82.83%

1.14

PEG Ratio

1.61

Balance Sheet Safety

0.06

Net Debt / Equity

1.22

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.25

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.05

0.00%

Dividend Yield

0.60%

KEYS: 3Ties: 2LLY: 6

KEYSLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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KEYS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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KEYS

$1.69

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Value Creator

Σ Retained

$2.52B

Δ Market Cap

+$4.26B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

LLY

$0.00

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Value Destroyer

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$708.84

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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KEYS

50.5% Overvalued

Price is 50.5% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $319.08

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $212.02

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

LLY

100.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1148.84

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1529604356065.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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KEYS

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $319?

+21.5%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +20.4%

The market implies +21.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +20.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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KEYS

52/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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KEYS

-2.57

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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KEYS

Insiders 0.6%Institutions 92.6%Retail & Other 6.9%

No. of Institutional Holders1,629

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%

No. of Institutional Holders5,685

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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KEYS

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

STEPHENS KEVIN A

Director

$44,520

@ $159.00 · 2025-05-29

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $4.54M

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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KEYS

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $29.89M

ESTRADA INGRID A

Officer

$681,740

@ $340.87 · 2026-06-30

DHANASEKARAN SATISH

Chief Executive Officer

$183,189

@ $361.32 · 2026-06-25

CULLEN JAMES G

Director

$1.04M

@ $346.58 · 2026-06-02

HAMADA RICHARD P

Director

$239,929

@ $275.78 · 2026-03-30

DOUGHERTY NEIL

Chief Financial Officer

$596,740

@ $298.37 · 2026-03-24

DHANASEKARAN SATISH

Chief Executive Officer

$500,100

@ $300.00 · 2026-03-24

LI JEFFREY K

Officer

$594,380

@ $297.19 · 2026-03-24

DHANASEKARAN SATISH

Chief Executive Officer

$483,430

@ $290.00 · 2026-03-19

NERSESIAN RONALD S

Director

$8.58M

@ $285.96 · 2026-03-17

JUSKIE JOANN ANN

Officer

$304,423

@ $304.42 · 2026-02-27

ESTRADA INGRID A

Officer

$475,360

@ $237.68 · 2026-02-20

YOON SUNG

Officer

$183,678

@ $206.84 · 2025-12-30

DOUGHERTY NEIL

Chief Financial Officer

$203,719

@ $203.72 · 2025-12-22

PAGE JOHN

Officer

$3.20M

@ $213.48 · 2025-12-10

DHANASEKARAN SATISH

Chief Executive Officer

$894,349

@ $211.43 · 2025-12-09

LI JEFFREY K

Officer

$790,105

@ $200.84 · 2025-12-03

PAGE JOHN

Officer

$623,634

@ $196.42 · 2025-12-01

NARAYANAN KAILASH

Officer

$628,740

@ $196.42 · 2025-12-01

DHANASEKARAN SATISH

Chief Executive Officer

$2.46M

@ $196.42 · 2025-12-01

ESTRADA INGRID A

Officer

$948,119

@ $196.42 · 2025-12-01

NERSESIAN RONALD S

Director

$5.91M

@ $196.88 · 2025-11-28

POOLE LISA M

Officer

$24,646

@ $173.56 · 2025-09-17

ESTRADA INGRID A

Officer

$347,960

@ $173.98 · 2025-09-17

DOUGHERTY NEIL

Chief Financial Officer

$2.01M

@ $164.60 · 2025-06-30

ESTRADA INGRID A

Officer

$1.59M

@ $158.97 · 2025-06-20

PAGE JOHN

Officer

$1.16M

@ $157.78 · 2025-05-30

DHANASEKARAN SATISH

Chief Executive Officer

$103,819

@ $157.78 · 2025-05-30

HAMADA RICHARD P

Director

$257,418

@ $162.00 · 2025-05-22

DOUGHERTY NEIL

Chief Financial Officer

$562,960

@ $155.00 · 2025-03-27

WALLACE MARK ADAM

Officer

$970,770

@ $161.79 · 2024-12-30

LI JEFFREY K

Officer

$758,511

@ $171.92 · 2024-12-04

NERSESIAN RONALD S

Director

$7.14M

@ $170.41 · 2024-12-03

GOOI SOON CHAI

Officer

$3.12M

@ $171.34 · 2024-12-03

PAGE JOHN

Officer

$658,959

@ $169.66 · 2024-12-02

DHANASEKARAN SATISH

Chief Executive Officer

$3.02M

@ $169.66 · 2024-12-02

GOOI SOON CHAI

Officer

$1.48M

@ $169.66 · 2024-12-02

NARAYANAN KAILASH

Officer

$101,924

@ $171.30 · 2024-11-27

POOLE LISA M

Officer

$60,126

@ $171.79 · 2024-11-25

HAMADA RICHARD P

Director

$254,592

@ $156.00 · 2024-08-22

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.63B

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.80M

@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$716,410

@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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KEYS

😐Neutral(53/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

LLY

😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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KEYS

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)

LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)

View KEYS Full Analysis View LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: KEYS vs LLY

Is Keysight Technologies, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to KEYS's -50.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $212 vs. $319).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Keysight Technologies, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while KEYS scores 52/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Eli Lilly and Company in financial distress?▼

LLY's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. KEYS scores 5.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Keysight Technologies, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus KEYS's 9.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.