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KeyCorp (KEY) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, KEY is undervalued at $23, with a DCF intrinsic value of $51 and a margin of safety of 56%. UNH is fairly valued at $401, with an intrinsic value of $376 and a margin of safety of -7%. Of the two, KEY has the wider margin of safety.

KEY
KeyCorp
$22.59
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$400.96

Rewards

KEY
    UNH
    • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

    Risks

    KEY
    • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠Share count has increased by 18% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
    • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.24 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
    UNH
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Gross margin of 18.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 11.8% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    KEY
    UNH
    Valuation
    N/A
    Free Cash Flow
    $17.69B
    N/A
    FCF Yield
    4.86%
    13.86
    Trailing P/E
    30.17
    10.51
    Forward P/E
    19.18
    Quality & Moat
    11.53%
    ROIC
    15.60%
    9.98%
    ROE
    12.18%
    0.00%
    Gross Margin
    18.80%
    1.74
    PEG Ratio
    1.41
    Balance Sheet Safety
    N/A
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.44
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    N/A
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.18
    3.63%
    Dividend Yield
    2.21%
    KEY: 3Ties: 1UNH: 4
    KEYUNH

    Historical Fundamentals

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    KEY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    UNH

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    KEY
    N/A
    Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
    Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
    Σ Retained
    $-257.0M
    Δ Market Cap
    +$6.50B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    UNH
    $-7.37
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $26.63B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-196.16B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    KEY
    56.1% Margin of Safety
    Price is 56.1% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $22.59
    Fair Value: $51.43
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    UNH
    6.6% Overvalued
    Price is 6.6% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $400.96
    Fair Value: $376.14
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    KEY

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    UNH

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $401?

    +14.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +9.8%

    The market implies +14.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    KEY
    47/100
    Narrow Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
    UNH
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    KEY
    -2.60
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    UNH
    -2.45
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    KEY
    Insiders 0.3%Institutions 88.9%Retail & Other 10.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,225
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    UNH
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.9%Retail & Other 13.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders4,020
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    KEY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    ALLARD JACQUELINE
    Director
    $2,525
    @ $14.03 · 2025-04-22
    TOBIN RICHARD J.
    Director
    $10,380
    @ $13.84 · 2025-04-21
    KHANNA SOMESH
    Director
    $1,387
    @ $13.87 · 2025-04-21
    RAMANI MOHIT
    Officer
    $137,500
    @ $13.75 · 2025-04-21
    BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $892,500
    @ $17.85 · 2025-02-05
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    UNH
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
    Chief Executive Officer
    $25.02M
    @ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
    REX JOHN F
    President
    $5.00M
    @ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
    GIL KRISTEN
    Director
    $1.00M
    @ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
    FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
    Director
    $491,786
    @ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
    NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
    Director
    $93,647
    @ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
    FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
    Director
    $511,575
    @ $511.57 · 2025-01-17
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    KEY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    9
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $8.77M
    GILE ELIZABETH R
    Director
    $499,992
    @ $20.88 · 2026-06-03
    MAGO ANGELA G
    Officer
    $494,411
    @ $21.66 · 2026-05-08
    PAINE ANDREW J III
    Officer
    $1.53M
    @ $23.23 · 2026-02-06
    MAGO ANGELA G
    Officer
    $1.35M
    @ $21.55 · 2026-01-29
    EVANS KATRINA M.
    Officer
    $710,789
    @ $21.74 · 2026-01-22
    PAINE ANDREW J III
    Officer
    $867,143
    @ $19.29 · 2025-09-09
    BRADY AMY G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $880,500
    @ $17.61 · 2025-08-08
    EVANS KATRINA M.
    Officer
    $317,390
    @ $18.67 · 2025-07-24
    GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
    Chief Executive Officer
    $2.12M
    @ $18.86 · 2025-07-23
    BRADY AMY G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $305,710
    @ $16.09 · 2025-06-12
    HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
    Director
    $83,000
    @ $16.60 · 2025-05-13
    KIDIK ALLYSON M
    Officer
    $17,973
    @ $17.69 · 2025-02-14
    GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $17.46 · 2025-02-13
    MAGO ANGELA G
    Officer
    $294,065
    @ $19.59 · 2024-11-06
    PAINE ANDREW J III
    Officer
    $1.26M
    @ $19.03 · 2024-11-06
    HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
    Director
    $154,260
    @ $17.14 · 2024-11-05
    BRADY AMY G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $719,692
    @ $16.92 · 2024-08-29
    HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
    Director
    $162,100
    @ $16.21 · 2024-08-16
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    UNH
    1
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $284,000
    CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
    Officer
    $284,000
    @ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
    CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
    Chief Executive Officer
    $179,645
    @ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    KEY
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(70/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    UNH
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(68/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    KEY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)
    UNH
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (68)
    View KEY Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: KEY vs UNH

    Is KeyCorp or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, KEY trades at a 56.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $51 vs. price $23), compared to UNH's -6.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $376 vs. $401).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, KeyCorp or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

    UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while KEY scores 47/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is KeyCorp in financial distress?▼

    KEY's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, KeyCorp or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

    UNH earns 15.6% ROIC versus KEY's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, KeyCorp's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

    UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to KEY's 78/100 (Safe). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.