Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) vs Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, KDP is overvalued at $32, with a DCF intrinsic value of $20 and a margin of safety of -60%. PFE is overvalued at $28, with an intrinsic value of $22 and a margin of safety of -23%. Of the two, PFE has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.96 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★FCF yield of 10.7% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.98 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Gross margin of 74.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Insiders have bought $3.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant skin in the game.
Risks
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 6.7x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.36 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 15.4% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 15.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠FCF yield of 7.9% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 12.68 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $32?
The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $28?
The market implies +6.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +5.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: KDP vs PFE
Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. or Pfizer Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, PFE trades at a -23.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $22 vs. price $28), compared to KDP's -60.4% margin of safety (intrinsic $20 vs. $32).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. or Pfizer Inc.?▼
KDP scores 69/100 (Narrow moat), while PFE scores 35/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. in financial distress?▼
KDP's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. PFE scores 2.1 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. or Pfizer Inc.?▼
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) generates a 10.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Pfizer Inc.'s 7.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. or Pfizer Inc.?▼
PFE earns 9.4% ROIC versus KDP's 3.0%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s or Pfizer Inc.'s?▼
KDP's dividend earns a safety score of 54/100 (Borderline), compared to PFE's 24/100 (Unsafe). KDP has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.