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Compare Stocks › KDP vs PFE

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) vs Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$27.15
VS
PFE
Pfizer Inc.
$27.41

Rewards

KDP
  • ★Dividend yield of 3.39% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
  • ★Trailing P/E of 17.7x is 36% below the historical average of 27.8x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
PFE
  • ★Gross margin of 75.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Dividend yield of 6.28% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
  • ★FCF yield of 8.6% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.

Risks

KDP
  • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.1x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.36 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 15.4% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
PFE
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 13.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 29.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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KDP
PFE
Valuation
$1.49B
Free Cash Flow
$13.43B
4.03%
FCF Yield
8.61%
17.75
Trailing P/E
20.15
10.75
Forward P/E
9.69
Quality & Moat
6.63%
ROIC
7.67%
8.15%
ROE
8.96%
54.20%
Gross Margin
75.81%
N/A
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
0.75
Debt / Equity
0.78
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
4.08
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.10
3.39%
Dividend Yield
6.28%
KDP: 1Ties: 2PFE: 8
KDPPFE

Historical Fundamentals

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KDP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

PFE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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KDP
$-5.75
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$2.12B
Δ Market Cap
$-12.17B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PFE
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-10.61B
Δ Market Cap
$-146.18B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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KDP
4.7% Overvalued
Price is 4.7% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $27.15
Fair Value: $25.93
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PFE
140.2% Overvalued
Price is 140.2% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $27.41
Fair Value: $11.41
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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KDP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $27?

+11.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +16.1%

The market implies +11.5% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +16.1%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

PFE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $27?

+11.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.3%

The market implies +11.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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KDP
69/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
PFE
35/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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KDP
-2.35
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PFE
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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KDP
Insiders 5.0%Institutions 97.7%
No. of Institutional Holders1,253
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PFE
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.7%Retail & Other 32.2%
No. of Institutional Holders3,693
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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KDP
0
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $752,056
GORLI ERIC
Officer
$254,056
@ $27.69 · 2025-09-11
VAN DE VEN MICHAEL G
Director
$498,000
@ $33.20 · 2025-06-04
JAB BEVCO B.V.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$120.68M
@ $33.34 · 2025-01-29
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PFE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
BLAYLOCK RONALD E
Director
$499,072
@ $25.65 · 2025-02-13
GOTTLIEB SCOTT
Director
$28,240
@ $28.24 · 2024-10-30
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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KDP
0
Sells (3M)
15
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $39.11M
STEPHENS ANGELA A
Officer
$295,200
@ $29.52 · 2025-12-12
GAMGORT ROBERT JAMES
Director
$272,952
@ $35.91 · 2025-08-20
GAMGORT ROBERT JAMES
Director
$6.84M
@ $32.90 · 2025-08-01
GAMGORT ROBERT JAMES
Director
$6.90M
@ $33.18 · 2025-07-29
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$403,920
@ $33.66 · 2025-07-17
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$403,726
@ $33.64 · 2025-07-01
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$403,680
@ $33.64 · 2025-06-20
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$395,040
@ $32.92 · 2025-06-03
GAMGORT ROBERT JAMES
Director
$6.88M
@ $33.10 · 2025-06-02
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$398,520
@ $33.21 · 2025-05-22
STEPHENS ANGELA A
Officer
$496,480
@ $34.24 · 2025-05-07
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$409,320
@ $34.11 · 2025-05-06
GAMGORT ROBERT JAMES
Director
$14.16M
@ $34.04 · 2025-05-01
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$427,080
@ $35.59 · 2025-04-17
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$417,360
@ $34.78 · 2025-04-01
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$400,680
@ $33.39 · 2025-03-20
GAMGORT ROBERT JAMES
Officer and Director
$14.26M
@ $34.29 · 2025-03-04
DENOOYER MARY BETH
Officer
$408,600
@ $34.05 · 2025-03-04
STEPHENS ANGELA A
Officer
$251,150
@ $34.17 · 2025-03-03
JAB BEVCO B.V.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.25B
@ $32.65 · 2024-10-30
ARCHAMBAULT MATTHEW ANDREW
Officer
$273,520
@ $34.19 · 2024-05-23
MINOGUE PATRICK MINOGUE
Officer
$580,872
@ $33.59 · 2024-04-30
STEPHENS ANGELA A
Officer
$840,250
@ $33.61 · 2024-04-30
JOHNSON ROGER FREDERICK
Officer
$1.06M
@ $33.82 · 2024-04-26
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PFE
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$64,825
@ $25.93 · 2025-03-04
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$147,714
@ $28.66 · 2024-08-13
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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KDP
FearGreed
😨Fear(34/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PFE
FearGreed
😏Greed(64/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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KDP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (34)
PFE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (64)
View KDP Full AnalysisView PFE Full Analysis