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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vs W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, JNJ is overvalued at $273, with a DCF intrinsic value of $203 and a margin of safety of -35%. WRB is fairly valued at $74, with an intrinsic value of $76 and a margin of safety of 2%. Of the two, WRB has the wider margin of safety.

JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
$273.20
VS
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
$73.86

Rewards

JNJ
  • ★Johnson & Johnson has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 67.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Johnson & Johnson scores 90/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
WRB
  • ★W. R. Berkley Corporation scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 10.7% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.38 of earning power — management is creating shareholder value.

Risks

JNJ
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 41.5x is 108% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.07 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
WRB
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 4.86 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.22 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

Key Valuation Metrics

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JNJ
WRB
Valuation
$18.50B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
2.81%
FCF Yield
N/A
41.46
Trailing P/E
15.62
23.52
Forward P/E
15.22
Quality & Moat
16.01%
ROIC
14.58%
20.02%
ROE
18.08%
67.77%
Gross Margin
43.60%
3.07
PEG Ratio
4.86
Balance Sheet Safety
0.34
Net Debt / Equity
Net cash
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.79
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.32
1.96%
Dividend Yield
0.54%
JNJ: 5Ties: 1WRB: 4
JNJWRB

Historical Fundamentals

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JNJ

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

WRB

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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JNJ
$0.91
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Mediocre Allocator
Σ Retained
$40.05B
Δ Market Cap
+$36.63B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
WRB
$2.28
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$3.18B
Δ Market Cap
+$7.25B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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JNJ
34.7% Overvalued
Price is 34.7% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $273.20
Fair Value: $202.84
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
WRB
2.2% Margin of Safety
Price is 2.2% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $73.86
Fair Value: $75.52
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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JNJ

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $273?

+9.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +16.1%

The market implies +9.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

WRB

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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JNJ
90/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
WRB
99/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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JNJ
-2.31
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
WRB
-2.63
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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JNJ
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 76.8%Retail & Other 23.2%
No. of Institutional Holders5,842
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
WRB
Insiders 26.3%Institutions 75.6%
No. of Institutional Holders1,296
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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JNJ
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $257,688
MORIKIS JOHN G
Director
$257,688
@ $206.15 · 2025-11-26
WEINBERGER MARK A
Director
$147,220
@ $147.22 · 2024-12-12
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
WRB
0
Buys (3M)
19
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $665.29M
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.75M
@ $72.61 · 2026-03-03
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$21.49M
@ $71.65 · 2026-02-27
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.38M
@ $71.13 · 2026-02-25
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$35.74M
@ $70.70 · 2026-02-20
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.84M
@ $70.93 · 2026-02-13
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$6.83M
@ $69.68 · 2026-02-11
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.84M
@ $70.88 · 2026-02-06
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$21.45M
@ $68.05 · 2026-02-04
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$33.09M
@ $68.22 · 2026-01-30
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$69.30M
@ $67.35 · 2026-01-28
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$46.90M
@ $67.19 · 2026-01-23
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.61M
@ $67.64 · 2026-01-21
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$36.64M
@ $68.49 · 2026-01-16
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$55.62M
@ $68.58 · 2026-01-14
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$32.64M
@ $69.45 · 2026-01-09
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$47.42M
@ $69.61 · 2026-01-07
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$47.17M
@ $70.11 · 2026-01-02
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.04M
@ $70.53 · 2025-12-29
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.55M
@ $69.71 · 2025-12-22
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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JNJ
5
Sells (3M)
14
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $128.54M
SCHMID TIMOTHY
Officer
$9.23M
@ $274.74 · 2026-09-02
TAUBERT JENNIFER L
Officer
$3.95M
@ $263.36 · 2026-08-17
DUATO JOAQUIN BOIX
Chief Executive Officer
$32.20M
@ $261.17 · 2026-08-13
FORMINARD ELIZABETH
Officer
$4.09M
@ $257.00 · 2026-08-06
DUATO JOAQUIN BOIX
Chief Executive Officer
$12.52M
@ $258.15 · 2026-08-05
BROADHURST VANESSA
Officer
$5.79M
@ $251.27 · 2026-07-20
WENGEL KATHRYN E
Chief Technology Officer
$2.41M
@ $241.15 · 2026-06-11
DECKER ROBERT J
Officer
$1.01M
@ $247.87 · 2026-02-27
SCHMID TIMOTHY
Officer
$324,763
@ $245.66 · 2026-02-20
SCHMID TIMOTHY
Officer
$5.53M
@ $244.33 · 2026-02-18
BROADHURST VANESSA
Officer
$1.51M
@ $243.39 · 2026-02-17
SWANSON JAMES D
Chief Technology Officer
$15.11M
@ $243.39 · 2026-02-17
WOLK JOSEPH J
Chief Financial Officer
$21.77M
@ $242.80 · 2026-02-17
REED JOHN C
Officer
$13.11M
@ $243.00 · 2026-02-17
REED JOHN C
Officer
$4.19M
@ $192.71 · 2025-10-17
TAUBERT JENNIFER L
Officer
$10.04M
@ $177.81 · 2025-09-04
DUATO JOAQUIN BOIX
Chief Executive Officer
$22.55M
@ $179.21 · 2025-08-22
WOLK JOSEPH J
Chief Financial Officer
$2.98M
@ $176.91 · 2025-08-15
REED JOHN C
Officer
$3.13M
@ $163.55 · 2025-07-17
DECKER ROBERT J
Officer
$1.16M
@ $165.88 · 2025-02-25
SCHMID TIMOTHY
Officer
$62,928
@ $156.15 · 2025-02-18
WOLK JOSEPH J
Chief Financial Officer
$2.00M
@ $153.89 · 2025-02-07
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
WRB
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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JNJ
FearGreed
😏Greed(67/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
WRB
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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JNJ
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (67)
WRB
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View JNJ Full AnalysisView WRB Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: JNJ vs WRB

Is Johnson & Johnson or W. R. Berkley Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, WRB trades at a 2.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $76 vs. price $74), compared to JNJ's -34.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $203 vs. $273).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Johnson & Johnson or W. R. Berkley Corporation?▼

WRB scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while JNJ scores 90/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is W. R. Berkley Corporation in financial distress?▼

WRB's Altman Z-Score of 1.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. JNJ scores 3.5 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Johnson & Johnson or W. R. Berkley Corporation?▼

JNJ earns 16.0% ROIC versus WRB's 14.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Johnson & Johnson's or W. R. Berkley Corporation's?▼

WRB's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to JNJ's 79/100 (Safe). WRB has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

JNJ vs WRB: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io