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Compare Stocks › JNJ vs MDLZ

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vs Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, JNJ is fairly valued at $228, with a DCF intrinsic value of $281 and a margin of safety of 19%. MDLZ is overvalued at $60, with an intrinsic value of $35 and a margin of safety of -71%. Of the two, JNJ has the wider margin of safety.

JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
$228.39
VS
MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc.
$60.12

Rewards

JNJ
  • ★Johnson & Johnson has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 68.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Johnson & Johnson scores 90/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
MDLZ

    Risks

    JNJ
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 26.5x is 33% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
    • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.06 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $2.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
    MDLZ

      Key Valuation Metrics

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      JNJ
      MDLZ
      Valuation
      $19.31B
      Free Cash Flow
      $2.85B
      3.51%
      FCF Yield
      3.69%
      26.46
      Trailing P/E
      29.76
      17.96
      Forward P/E
      17.75
      Quality & Moat
      15.32%
      ROIC
      6.09%
      26.42%
      ROE
      10.16%
      68.04%
      Gross Margin
      28.77%
      3.06
      PEG Ratio
      1.02
      Balance Sheet Safety
      0.41
      Net Debt / Equity
      0.78
      N/A
      Interest Coverage
      N/A
      0.96
      Net Debt / EBITDA
      3.85
      2.22%
      Dividend Yield
      3.22%
      JNJ: 7Ties: 3MDLZ: 2
      JNJMDLZ

      Historical Fundamentals

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      JNJ

      Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

      MDLZ

      Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

      Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

      $1 Retained Earnings Test

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      JNJ
      $0.91
      created per $1 retained over 3 years
      Mediocre Allocator
      Σ Retained
      $40.05B
      Δ Market Cap
      +$36.63B
      Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
      > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
      MDLZ
      $-4.39
      created per $1 retained over 3 years
      Market Cap Declined
      Σ Retained
      $5.03B
      Δ Market Cap
      $-22.05B
      Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
      > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

      Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
      > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

      Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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      JNJ
      18.6% Margin of Safety
      Price is 18.6% below estimated fair value
      Current Price: $228.39
      Fair Value: $280.51
      Strongly undervalued
      Undervalued
      Fairly valued
      Overvalued
      Strongly overvalued
      MDLZ
      71.1% Overvalued
      Price is 71.1% above estimated fair value
      Current Price: $60.12
      Fair Value: $35.15
      Strongly undervalued
      Undervalued
      Fairly valued
      Overvalued
      Strongly overvalued

      Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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      JNJ

      What growth rate is the market pricing in at $228?

      +7.7%
      Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
      Standard FCF implies +13.3%

      The market implies +7.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

      Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

      MDLZ

      What growth rate is the market pricing in at $60?

      +16.6%
      Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
      Standard FCF implies +15.0%

      The market implies +16.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

      Standard FCF implies a demanding +15.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

      Economic Moat Score

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      JNJ
      90/100
      Wide Moat
      70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

      Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

      Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
      MDLZ
      48/100
      Narrow Moat
      70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

      Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

      Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

      Forensic Accounting

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      JNJ
      -2.31
      Unlikely Manipulator
      Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

      M-Score Trend

      Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
      MDLZ
      -2.43
      Unlikely Manipulator
      Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

      M-Score Trend

      Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

      Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

      Ownership Breakdown

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      JNJ
      Insiders 0.1%Institutions 76.9%Retail & Other 23.1%
      No. of Institutional Holders5,728
      High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
      MDLZ
      Insiders 0.2%Institutions 90.1%Retail & Other 9.6%
      No. of Institutional Holders2,492
      High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

      High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

      Insider Buying Activity

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      JNJ
      0
      Buys (3M)
      1
      Buys (12M)
      Total value (12M): $257,688
      MORIKIS JOHN G
      Director
      $257,688
      @ $206.15 · 2025-11-26
      WEINBERGER MARK A
      Director
      $147,220
      @ $147.22 · 2024-12-12
      Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
      MDLZ
      0
      Buys (3M)
      0
      Buys (12M)
      No open market insider purchases found.
      Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

      Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

      Insider Selling Activity

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      JNJ
      1
      Sells (3M)
      13
      Sells (12M)
      Total value (12M): $103.65M
      WENGEL KATHRYN E
      Chief Technology Officer
      $2.41M
      @ $241.15 · 2026-06-11
      DECKER ROBERT J
      Officer
      $1.01M
      @ $247.87 · 2026-02-27
      SCHMID TIMOTHY
      Officer
      $324,763
      @ $245.66 · 2026-02-20
      SCHMID TIMOTHY
      Officer
      $5.53M
      @ $244.33 · 2026-02-18
      SWANSON JAMES D
      Chief Technology Officer
      $15.11M
      @ $243.39 · 2026-02-17
      BROADHURST VANESSA
      Officer
      $1.51M
      @ $243.39 · 2026-02-17
      WOLK JOSEPH J
      Chief Financial Officer
      $21.77M
      @ $242.80 · 2026-02-17
      REED JOHN C
      Officer
      $13.11M
      @ $243.00 · 2026-02-17
      REED JOHN C
      Officer
      $4.19M
      @ $192.71 · 2025-10-17
      TAUBERT JENNIFER L
      Officer
      $10.04M
      @ $177.81 · 2025-09-04
      DUATO JOAQUIN BOIX
      Chief Executive Officer
      $22.55M
      @ $179.21 · 2025-08-22
      WOLK JOSEPH J
      Chief Financial Officer
      $2.98M
      @ $176.91 · 2025-08-15
      REED JOHN C
      Officer
      $3.13M
      @ $163.55 · 2025-07-17
      DECKER ROBERT J
      Officer
      $1.16M
      @ $165.88 · 2025-02-25
      SCHMID TIMOTHY
      Officer
      $62,928
      @ $156.15 · 2025-02-18
      WOLK JOSEPH J
      Chief Financial Officer
      $2.00M
      @ $153.89 · 2025-02-07
      DECKER ROBERT J
      Officer
      $930,113
      @ $165.06 · 2024-08-30
      Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
      MDLZ
      0
      Sells (3M)
      1
      Sells (12M)
      Total value (12M): $186,000
      VALLE GUSTAVO CARLOS
      Officer
      $186,000
      @ $62.00 · 2026-02-13
      Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

      Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

      🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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      JNJ
      FearGreed
      😏Greed(62/100)

      "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

      Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
      MDLZ
      FearGreed
      😐Neutral(47/100)

      "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

      Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

      Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

      ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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      JNJ
      ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

      The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

      DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
      MDLZ
      ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

      The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

      DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)
      View JNJ Full AnalysisView MDLZ Full Analysis

      Frequently Asked Questions: JNJ vs MDLZ

      Is Johnson & Johnson or Mondelez International, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

      Based on our discounted cash flow model, JNJ trades at a 18.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $281 vs. price $228), compared to MDLZ's -71.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $35 vs. $60).

      Which stock has a wider economic moat, Johnson & Johnson or Mondelez International, Inc.?▼

      JNJ scores 90/100 (Wide moat), while MDLZ scores 48/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

      Is Mondelez International, Inc. in financial distress?▼

      MDLZ's Altman Z-Score of 2.2 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. JNJ scores 3.5 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

      Which company has better free cash flow, Johnson & Johnson or Mondelez International, Inc.?▼

      Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) generates a 3.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Johnson & Johnson's 3.5%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

      Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Johnson & Johnson or Mondelez International, Inc.?▼

      JNJ earns 15.3% ROIC versus MDLZ's 6.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

      Which dividend is safer, Johnson & Johnson's or Mondelez International, Inc.'s?▼

      JNJ's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to MDLZ's 39/100 (Unsafe). JNJ has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.