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Compare Stocks › JBHT vs LLY

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, JBHT is undervalued at $272, with a DCF intrinsic value of $450 and a margin of safety of 40%. LLY is undervalued at $1149, with an intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
$271.75
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84

Rewards

JBHT
  • ★J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 58.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 5.73 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

JBHT
  • ⚠Gross margin of 18.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 38.6x is 43% above the historical average of 26.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.53 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
LLY
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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JBHT
LLY
Valuation
$903.03M
Free Cash Flow
$9.16B
3.54%
FCF Yield
N/A
38.60
Trailing P/E
40.81
26.86
Forward P/E
25.48
Quality & Moat
14.72%
ROIC
37.80%
18.45%
ROE
107.46%
18.50%
Gross Margin
82.83%
2.53
PEG Ratio
1.61
Balance Sheet Safety
0.38
Net Debt / Equity
1.22
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.84
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.05
0.66%
Dividend Yield
0.60%
JBHT: 4Ties: 1LLY: 6
JBHTLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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JBHT

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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JBHT
$0.21
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$1.38B
Δ Market Cap
+$294.8M
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$708.84
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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JBHT
39.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 39.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $271.75
Fair Value: $450.16
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1148.84
Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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JBHT

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $272?

+18.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +13.1%

The market implies +18.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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JBHT
67/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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JBHT
-3.18
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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JBHT
Insiders 20.4%Institutions 79.2%Retail & Other 0.4%
No. of Institutional Holders1,141
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,685
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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JBHT
0
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $193,425
FRAZIER SPENCER
Officer
$31,872
@ $156.24 · 2025-11-21
MCGEE ERIC
Officer
$161,553
@ $140.85 · 2025-08-04
HOBBS NICHOLAS
Chief Operating Officer
$399,746
@ $131.58 · 2025-04-24
ROBO JAMES L
Director
$10.00M
@ $168.21 · 2025-02-14
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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JBHT
5
Sells (3M)
24
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $13.82M
WEBB BRIAN
Officer
$426,015
@ $284.01 · 2026-06-05
KEEFAUVER DAVID
Officer
$200,444
@ $285.13 · 2026-06-05
FRAZIER SPENCER
Officer
$516,406
@ $258.20 · 2026-05-19
HICKS BRADLEY W
Officer
$2.00M
@ $261.91 · 2026-05-15
FIELD DARREN P
Officer
$1.02M
@ $254.49 · 2026-05-14
HOBBS NICHOLAS
Chief Operating Officer
$318,953
@ $250.75 · 2026-04-22
THOMPSON JAMES KIRK
Director
$254,275
@ $254.28 · 2026-04-21
BOATTINI JENNIFER
General Counsel
$519,216
@ $232.00 · 2026-02-27
THOMPSON JAMES KIRK
Director
$530,722
@ $230.75 · 2026-02-11
DELCO ALBERT BRAD
Chief Financial Officer
$227,250
@ $227.25 · 2026-02-06
KUHLOW JOHN KENNETH
Officer
$225,675
@ $225.68 · 2026-02-04
HICKS BRADLEY W
Officer
$906,829
@ $225.13 · 2026-02-04
WOODRUFF RONALD GREER
Officer
$74,664
@ $225.57 · 2026-02-04
FIELD DARREN P
Officer
$1.98M
@ $219.76 · 2026-02-03
HICKS BRADLEY W
Officer
$823,513
@ $210.13 · 2026-01-22
WOODRUFF RONALD GREER
Officer
$287,937
@ $207.00 · 2026-01-21
HOBBS NICHOLAS
Chief Operating Officer
$613,582
@ $201.97 · 2026-01-20
WEBB BRIAN
Officer
$150,528
@ $189.11 · 2025-12-09
KEEFAUVER DAVID
Officer
$300,593
@ $189.29 · 2025-12-08
BRACY KEVIN
Officer and Treasurer
$210,265
@ $191.15 · 2025-12-08
HICKS BRADLEY W
Officer
$380,090
@ $190.04 · 2025-12-03
DELCO ALBERT BRAD
Chief Financial Officer
$179,540
@ $179.54 · 2025-12-02
KUHLOW JOHN KENNETH
Officer
$579,726
@ $179.76 · 2025-12-01
FIELD DARREN P
Officer
$1.10M
@ $169.00 · 2025-10-29
KEEFAUVER DAVID
Officer
$150,298
@ $151.97 · 2025-07-23
FIELD DARREN P
Officer
$194,004
@ $161.67 · 2025-03-07
MCGEE ERIC
Officer
$557,700
@ $169.00 · 2025-02-04
THOMPSON JAMES KIRK
Retired
$771,627
@ $175.37 · 2025-01-21
MCGEE ERIC
Officer
$26,495
@ $182.72 · 2024-12-06
SIMPSON SHELLEY
Chief Executive Officer
$1.10M
@ $183.47 · 2024-12-05
WEBB BRIAN
Officer
$102,200
@ $192.83 · 2024-11-07
BRACY KEVIN
Officer and Treasurer
$306,449
@ $189.87 · 2024-11-07
HICKS BRADLEY W
Officer
$96,430
@ $192.86 · 2024-11-06
FRAZIER SPENCER
Officer
$427,251
@ $194.21 · 2024-11-06
KEEFAUVER DAVID
Officer
$224,480
@ $195.03 · 2024-11-06
WOODRUFF RONALD GREER
Officer
$303,018
@ $191.42 · 2024-11-06
MCGEE ERIC
Officer
$19,482
@ $194.82 · 2024-11-06
FIELD DARREN P
Officer
$275,250
@ $183.50 · 2024-10-30
MCGEE ERIC
Officer
$30,732
@ $175.61 · 2024-10-18
FIELD DARREN P
Officer
$525,090
@ $175.03 · 2024-08-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.63B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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JBHT
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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JBHT
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
View JBHT Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: JBHT vs LLY

Is J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to JBHT's 39.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $450 vs. $272).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while JBHT scores 67/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Eli Lilly and Company in financial distress?▼

LLY's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. JBHT scores 5.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus JBHT's 14.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

JBHT's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). JBHT has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

JBHT vs LLY: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io