Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) vs QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, ITW is overvalued at $287, with a DCF intrinsic value of $201 and a margin of safety of -43%. QCOM is overvalued at $148, with an intrinsic value of $127 and a margin of safety of -16%. Of the two, QCOM has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Illinois Tool Works Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Illinois Tool Works Inc. scores 95/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 11.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★QUALCOMM Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★QUALCOMM Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 23.3% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
Risks
- ⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.08 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.86 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠High leverage (3.06x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠FCF yield of 6.6% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠15 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $148?
The market implies +11.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Revenue Predictability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: ITW vs QCOM
Is Illinois Tool Works Inc. or QUALCOMM Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, QCOM trades at a -15.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $127 vs. price $148), compared to ITW's -42.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $201 vs. $287).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Illinois Tool Works Inc. or QUALCOMM Incorporated?▼
ITW scores 95/100 (Wide moat), while QCOM scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Illinois Tool Works Inc. or QUALCOMM Incorporated?▼
ITW earns 27.6% ROIC versus QCOM's 15.0%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s or QUALCOMM Incorporated's?▼
QCOM's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to ITW's 69/100 (Safe). QCOM has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.