Intuit Inc. (INTU) vs Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, INTU is undervalued at $315, with a DCF intrinsic value of $565 and a margin of safety of 44%. MPC is overvalued at $422, with an intrinsic value of $324 and a margin of safety of -30%. Of the two, INTU has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Intuit Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 81.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Intuit Inc. scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 12.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $315?
The market implies +5.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding -2.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $422?
The market implies +15.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: INTU vs MPC
Is Intuit Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, INTU trades at a 44.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $565 vs. price $315), compared to MPC's -30.4% margin of safety (intrinsic $324 vs. $422).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Intuit Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼
INTU scores 94/100 (Wide moat), while MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Intuit Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼
Intuit Inc. (INTU) generates a 10.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Marathon Petroleum Corporation's 7.8%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Intuit Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼
MPC earns 27.5% ROIC versus INTU's 10.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Intuit Inc.'s or Marathon Petroleum Corporation's?▼
MPC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to INTU's 94/100 (Very Safe). MPC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.