Compare Stocks › ICE vs LLY

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, ICE is overvalued at $152, with a DCF intrinsic value of $125 and a margin of safety of -22%. LLY is undervalued at $1149, with an intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

ICE

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

$152.48

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1148.84

Rewards

ICE

★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $4.35 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
★Trailing P/E of 21.5x is 33% below the historical average of 32.3x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

ICE

⚠PEG ratio of 2.47 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.95 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
⚠7 insider sales totaling $4.3M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

LLY

⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ICE

LLY

Valuation

$3.63B

Free Cash Flow

$9.16B

4.24%

FCF Yield

N/A

21.51

Trailing P/E

40.81

17.38

Forward P/E

25.48

Quality & Moat

8.75%

ROIC

37.80%

14.09%

ROE

107.46%

100.00%

Gross Margin

82.83%

2.47

PEG Ratio

1.61

Balance Sheet Safety

0.66

Net Debt / Equity

1.22

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

2.90

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.05

1.36%

Dividend Yield

0.60%

ICE: 5Ties: 1LLY: 5

ICELLY

Historical Fundamentals

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ICE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ICE

$6.46

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$5.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$34.48B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

LLY

$0.00

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Value Destroyer

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$708.84

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ICE

22.2% Overvalued

Price is 22.2% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $152.48

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $124.74

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

LLY

100.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1148.84

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1529604356065.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ICE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $152?

+11.1%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.7%

The market implies +11.1% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +12.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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ICE

61/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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ICE

-2.45

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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ICE

Insiders 0.8%Institutions 96.1%Retail & Other 3.1%

No. of Institutional Holders2,267

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%

No. of Institutional Holders5,685

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ICE

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $4.54M

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ICE

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $22.49M

MARTIN LYNN C

Officer

$2.24M

@ $141.15 · 2026-07-16

HAGUE WILLIAM JEFFERSON

Director

$185,900

@ $139.46 · 2026-06-12

HAGUE WILLIAM JEFFERSON

Director

$12,604

@ $138.51 · 2026-06-09

SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J

General Counsel

$693,073

@ $151.56 · 2026-05-26

BOWEN SHARON

Director

$100,904

@ $151.28 · 2026-05-22

GARDINER WARREN

Chief Financial Officer

$390,034

@ $156.64 · 2026-05-19

KAPANI MAYUR

Chief Technology Officer

$663,797

@ $155.42 · 2026-05-14

FOLEY DOUGLAS

Officer

$263,936

@ $164.96 · 2026-03-09

JACKSON BENJAMIN

President

$637,725

@ $165.00 · 2026-02-27

SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J

General Counsel

$740,524

@ $162.00 · 2026-02-26

MARTIN LYNN C

Officer

$2.07M

@ $153.86 · 2026-02-20

JACKSON BENJAMIN

President

$594,155

@ $153.73 · 2026-02-19

GARDINER WARREN

Chief Financial Officer

$383,460

@ $154.00 · 2026-02-19

EDMONDS CHRISTOPHER SCOTT

Officer

$1.74M

@ $153.82 · 2026-02-19

KAPANI MAYUR

Chief Technology Officer

$2.36M

@ $155.02 · 2026-02-18

JACKSON BENJAMIN

President

$2.12M

@ $165.00 · 2026-02-10

SPRIESER JUDITH A.

Director

$798,899

@ $169.19 · 2026-02-05

FOLEY DOUGLAS

Officer

$261,120

@ $163.20 · 2025-12-12

KAPANI MAYUR

Chief Technology Officer

$837,382

@ $156.67 · 2025-12-08

SPRIESER JUDITH A.

Director

$584,440

@ $157.96 · 2025-12-05

GARDINER WARREN

Chief Financial Officer

$241,538

@ $153.65 · 2025-11-20

SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J

General Counsel

$269,960

@ $152.52 · 2025-11-19

SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J

General Counsel

$314,231

@ $151.00 · 2025-11-11

KAPANI MAYUR

Chief Technology Officer

$1.60M

@ $158.88 · 2025-10-08

WILLIAMS STUART GLEN

Chief Operating Officer

$161,542

@ $172.04 · 2025-09-17

FOLEY DOUGLAS

Officer

$280,992

@ $175.62 · 2025-09-12

SPRIESER JUDITH A.

Director

$506,086

@ $174.51 · 2025-09-04

FAROOQUI DURIYA M

Director

$363,100

@ $178.34 · 2025-08-27

SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J

General Counsel

$686,570

@ $178.33 · 2025-08-26

TIRINNANZI MARTHA A

Director

$109,654

@ $179.76 · 2025-08-22

GARDINER WARREN

Chief Financial Officer

$280,166

@ $178.45 · 2025-08-20

BOWEN SHARON

Director

$146,890

@ $185.00 · 2025-07-25

BOWEN SHARON

Director

$145,724

@ $183.30 · 2025-07-01

KAPANI MAYUR

Chief Technology Officer

$1.78M

@ $178.65 · 2025-06-13

FOLEY DOUGLAS

Officer

$283,968

@ $177.48 · 2025-06-12

HAGUE WILLIAM JEFFERSON

Director

$94,137

@ $177.62 · 2025-06-10

SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J

General Counsel

$689,247

@ $179.12 · 2025-06-05

NAMKUNG JAMES WON

Officer

$110,160

@ $180.00 · 2025-05-30

EDMONDS CHRISTOPHER SCOTT

Officer

$900,000

@ $180.00 · 2025-05-30

FOLEY DOUGLAS

Officer

$1.48M

@ $179.75 · 2025-05-30

TIRINNANZI MARTHA A

Director

$140,828

@ $177.37 · 2025-05-28

EDMONDS CHRISTOPHER SCOTT

Officer

$96,335

@ $174.52 · 2025-05-22

SPRIESER JUDITH A.

Director

$311,079

@ $175.85 · 2025-05-21

GARDINER WARREN

Chief Financial Officer

$275,811

@ $175.90 · 2025-05-20

KING ELIZABETH KATHRYN

Officer

$2.94M

@ $175.47 · 2025-05-19

EDMONDS CHRISTOPHER SCOTT

Officer

$1.25M

@ $178.38 · 2025-05-09

SPRIESER JUDITH A.

Director

$418,175

@ $159.00 · 2025-04-16

NAMKUNG JAMES WON

Officer

$211,050

@ $175.00 · 2025-03-20

KAPANI MAYUR

Chief Technology Officer

$1.70M

@ $170.52 · 2025-03-14

FOLEY DOUGLAS

Officer

$270,624

@ $169.14 · 2025-03-12

SPRIESER JUDITH A.

Director

$381,884

@ $169.35 · 2025-03-07

NAMKUNG JAMES WON

Officer

$747,718

@ $169.86 · 2025-03-06

WILLIAMS STUART GLEN

Chief Operating Officer

$378,760

@ $170.00 · 2025-03-05

MARTIN LYNN C

President

$727,125

@ $175.00 · 2025-03-03

GARDINER WARREN

Chief Financial Officer

$268,139

@ $171.01 · 2025-02-28

JACKSON BENJAMIN

President

$1.35M

@ $171.43 · 2025-02-26

SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J

General Counsel

$659,452

@ $171.42 · 2025-02-26

NAMKUNG JAMES WON

Officer

$204,680

@ $170.00 · 2025-02-25

JACKSON BENJAMIN

President

$4.16M

@ $166.54 · 2025-02-20

MARTIN LYNN C

Officer

$1.75M

@ $166.63 · 2025-02-20

EDMONDS CHRISTOPHER SCOTT

Officer

$1.14M

@ $166.99 · 2025-02-19

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.63B

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.80M

@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$716,410

@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

ICE

😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

LLY

😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ICE

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)

LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)

View ICE Full Analysis View LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: ICE vs LLY

Is Intercontinental Exchange Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to ICE's -22.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $125 vs. $152).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while ICE scores 61/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Intercontinental Exchange Inc. in financial distress?▼

ICE's Altman Z-Score of 0.9 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus ICE's 8.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

ICE's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). ICE has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.