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Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) vs Morgan Stanley (MS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, IBKR is fairly valued at $77, with a DCF intrinsic value of $86 and a margin of safety of 11%. MS is undervalued at $184, with an intrinsic value of $314 and a margin of safety of 41%. Of the two, MS has the wider margin of safety.

IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
$76.90
VS
MS
Morgan Stanley
$184.30

Rewards

IBKR
  • ★Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 92.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. scores 81/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
MS
  • ★Gross margin of 87.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

IBKR
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 29.4x is 34% above the historical average of 21.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.43 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
MS
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠13 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

Key Valuation Metrics

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IBKR
MS
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
N/A
N/A
FCF Yield
N/A
29.35
Trailing P/E
14.62
23.14
Forward P/E
13.50
Quality & Moat
7.41%
ROIC
3.47%
23.67%
ROE
13.84%
92.66%
Gross Margin
87.31%
1.09
PEG Ratio
1.61
Balance Sheet Safety
Net cash
Net Debt / Equity
Net cash
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
0.78%
Dividend Yield
2.50%
IBKR: 5Ties: 1MS: 3
IBKRMS

Historical Fundamentals

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IBKR

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

MS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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IBKR
$10.24
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$2.07B
Δ Market Cap
+$21.20B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MS
$6.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$20.84B
Δ Market Cap
+$138.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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IBKR
10.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 10.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $76.90
Fair Value: $85.95
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MS
41.3% Margin of Safety
Price is 41.3% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $184.30
Fair Value: $313.71
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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IBKR

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

MS

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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IBKR
81/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Revenue Predictability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
MS
80/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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IBKR
-2.34
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MS
-2.09
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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IBKR
Insiders 2.7%Institutions 88.2%Retail & Other 9.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,543
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MS
Insiders 24.4%Institutions 63.5%Retail & Other 12.1%
No. of Institutional Holders3,458
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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IBKR
2
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $20,120
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$2,136
@ $85.44 · 2026-10-01
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$2,363
@ $94.52 · 2026-09-01
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$2,176
@ $87.04 · 2026-08-03
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$2,201
@ $88.04 · 2026-07-01
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$2,152
@ $86.08 · 2026-06-01
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$1,991
@ $79.64 · 2026-05-01
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$1,710
@ $68.40 · 2026-04-01
CONKLING LORI A
Director
$5,391
@ $71.88 · 2026-03-02
BRIGHT JILL
Director
$26,380
@ $65.95 · 2025-10-23
BRIGHT JILL
Director
$29,634
@ $219.51 · 2025-01-31
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MS
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
PETERSON DOUGLAS L
Director
$5,630
@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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IBKR
1
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.07M
HARRIS LAWRENCE E
Director
$2.07M
@ $82.61 · 2026-10-28
HARRIS LAWRENCE E
Director
$2.00M
@ $76.93 · 2026-04-28
HARRIS LAWRENCE E
Director
$734,505
@ $69.00 · 2025-10-29
HARRIS LAWRENCE E
Director
$996,998
@ $69.45 · 2025-10-28
HARRIS LAWRENCE E
Director
$2.04M
@ $67.86 · 2025-10-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MS
0
Sells (3M)
13
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $48.28M
SCHAPIRO MARY L
Director
$212,055
@ $212.06 · 2026-07-28
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$5.21M
@ $215.55 · 2026-07-17
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$2.12M
@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$2.78M
@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$3.04M
@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$9.74M
@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$6.02M
@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
YESHAYA SHARON
Chief Financial Officer
$2.94M
@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.55M
@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$3.97M
@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.44M
@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$3.69M
@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$5.57M
@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
$16.43M
@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$2.81M
@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.69M
@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.09M
@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.53M
@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$3.70M
@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$95,459
@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.80M
@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.12M
@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.15M
@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.78M
@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$5.00M
@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
AKRAM RAJA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.38M
@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.52M
@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.20M
@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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IBKR
FearGreed
😐Neutral(41/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MS
FearGreed
😐Neutral(49/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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IBKR
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (41)
MS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (49)
View IBKR Full AnalysisView MS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: IBKR vs MS

Is Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. or Morgan Stanley more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MS trades at a 41.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $314 vs. price $184), compared to IBKR's 10.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $86 vs. $77).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. or Morgan Stanley?▼

IBKR scores 81/100 (Wide moat), while MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼

MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. IBKR scores 0.4 (Distress zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. or Morgan Stanley?▼

IBKR earns 7.4% ROIC versus MS's 3.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.'s or Morgan Stanley's?▼

IBKR's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MS's 79/100 (Safe). IBKR has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

IBKR vs MS: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io