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Humana Inc. (HUM) vs Pfizer, Inc. (PFE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, HUM is undervalued at $364, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1003 and a margin of safety of 64%. PFE is undervalued at $25, with an intrinsic value of $127985960274 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, PFE has the wider margin of safety.

HUM
Humana Inc.
$363.86
VS
PFE
Pfizer, Inc.
$25.01

Rewards

HUM
  • ★Humana Inc. scores 98/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.08 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
  • ★Net debt/EBITDA of -2.5x means the company holds more cash than debt — a net cash position.
PFE
  • ★Gross margin of 74.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Trailing P/E of 19.1x is 37% below the historical average of 30.4x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.

Risks

HUM
  • ⚠Gross margin of 13.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 34.4x is 41% above the historical average of 24.3x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.06 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
PFE
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 15.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.94 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.38 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

Key Valuation Metrics

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HUM
PFE
Valuation
$1.94B
Free Cash Flow
$12.38B
4.44%
FCF Yield
N/A
34.36
Trailing P/E
19.09
22.08
Forward P/E
8.85
Quality & Moat
11.72%
ROIC
10.19%
6.89%
ROE
8.31%
13.65%
Gross Margin
74.80%
2.06
PEG Ratio
2.94
Balance Sheet Safety
Net cash
Net Debt / Equity
0.57
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-2.54
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.03
0.97%
Dividend Yield
6.88%
HUM: 4Ties: 1PFE: 6
HUMPFE

Historical Fundamentals

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HUM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

PFE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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HUM
$-9.22
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$3.59B
Δ Market Cap
$-33.12B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PFE
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-10.61B
Δ Market Cap
$-26.34
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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HUM
63.7% Margin of Safety
Price is 63.7% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $363.86
Fair Value: $1003.29
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PFE
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $25.01
Fair Value: $127985960274.09
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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HUM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $364?

+9.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +6.1%

The market implies +9.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +6.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

PFE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $25?

-14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.0%

The market implies -14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -15.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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HUM
98/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
PFE
35/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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HUM
-2.27
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PFE
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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HUM
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 99.8%
No. of Institutional Holders1,233
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PFE
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 69.5%Retail & Other 30.4%
No. of Institutional Holders3,661
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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HUM
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $150,016
SHETTY SANJAY K
Officer
$150,016
@ $185.20 · 2026-02-23
RECHTIN JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$1.50M
@ $229.25 · 2025-05-14
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PFE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
BLAYLOCK RONALD E
Director
$499,072
@ $25.65 · 2025-02-13
GOTTLIEB SCOTT
Director
$28,240
@ $28.24 · 2024-10-30
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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HUM
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
HUVAL TIMOTHY S.
Officer
$948,925
@ $256.26 · 2024-12-31
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PFE
1
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $51,400
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$51,400
@ $25.70 · 2026-06-09
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$64,825
@ $25.93 · 2025-03-04
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$147,714
@ $28.66 · 2024-08-13
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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HUM
FearGreed
😐Neutral(45/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PFE
FearGreed
😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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HUM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (45)
PFE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)
View HUM Full AnalysisView PFE Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: HUM vs PFE

Is Humana Inc. or Pfizer, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, PFE trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $127985960274 vs. price $25), compared to HUM's 63.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $1003 vs. $364).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Humana Inc. or Pfizer, Inc.?▼

HUM scores 98/100 (Wide moat), while PFE scores 35/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Pfizer, Inc. in financial distress?▼

PFE's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. HUM scores 4.1 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Humana Inc. or Pfizer, Inc.?▼

HUM earns 11.7% ROIC versus PFE's 10.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Humana Inc.'s or Pfizer, Inc.'s?▼

HUM's dividend earns a safety score of 55/100 (Borderline), compared to PFE's 24/100 (Unsafe). HUM has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.

HUM vs PFE: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io