Honeywell International Inc. (HON) vs McDonald's Corporation (MCD): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, HON is undervalued at $205, with a DCF intrinsic value of $611 and a margin of safety of 66%. MCD is overvalued at $250, with an intrinsic value of $190 and a margin of safety of -31%. Of the two, HON has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Honeywell International Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Honeywell International Inc. scores 85/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★McDonald's Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★McDonald's Corporation scores 91/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.47 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 3.39 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $4.2M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.15 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠20 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $205?
The market implies +6.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +5.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $250?
The market implies +11.8% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +16.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: HON vs MCD
Is Honeywell International Inc. or McDonald's Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, HON trades at a 66.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $611 vs. price $205), compared to MCD's -31.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $190 vs. $250).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Honeywell International Inc. or McDonald's Corporation?▼
MCD scores 91/100 (Wide moat), while HON scores 85/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Honeywell International Inc. in financial distress?▼
HON's Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MCD scores 4.9 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Honeywell International Inc. or McDonald's Corporation?▼
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) generates a 8.3% free cash flow yield, compared to McDonald's Corporation's 3.5%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Honeywell International Inc. or McDonald's Corporation?▼
MCD earns 18.6% ROIC versus HON's 11.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Honeywell International Inc.'s or McDonald's Corporation's?▼
HON's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to MCD's 69/100 (Safe). HON has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.