Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) vs Morgan Stanley (MS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, HLT is overvalued at $305, with a DCF intrinsic value of $162 and a margin of safety of -89%. MS is undervalued at $203, with an intrinsic value of $303 and a margin of safety of 33%. Of the two, MS has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 79.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. scores 97/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Gross margin of 87.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.43 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.2x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $5.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $305?
The market implies +21.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: HLT vs MS
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. or Morgan Stanley more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MS trades at a 33.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $303 vs. price $203), compared to HLT's -88.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $162 vs. $305).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. or Morgan Stanley?▼
HLT scores 97/100 (Wide moat), while MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼
MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. HLT scores 2.8 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. or Morgan Stanley?▼
HLT earns 18.1% ROIC versus MS's 3.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s or Morgan Stanley's?▼
HLT's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to MS's 79/100 (Safe). HLT has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.