The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) vs Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
Rewards
- ★The Home Depot, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★The Home Depot, Inc. scores 87/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Gross margin of 76.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.38 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Dividend yield of 3.03% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.96 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠High leverage (5.14x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠14 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 3.43 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠12 insider sales totaling $40.7M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $324?
The market implies +12.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.