Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) vs The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Rewards
- ★Caterpillar Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Caterpillar Inc. scores 75/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.0% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★The Home Depot, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★The Home Depot, Inc. scores 87/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Dividend yield of 2.84% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 36.6x is 83% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠High leverage (2.07x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠High leverage (5.10x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $2.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $689?
The market implies +17.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +23.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $328?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.