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Halliburton Company (HAL) vs Morgan Stanley (MS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, HAL is undervalued at $35, with a DCF intrinsic value of $110 and a margin of safety of 68%. MS is undervalued at $223, with an intrinsic value of $298 and a margin of safety of 25%. Of the two, HAL has the wider margin of safety.

HAL
Halliburton Company
$34.93
VS
MS
Morgan Stanley
$223.17

Rewards

HAL
  • ★Halliburton Company has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 10.7% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.05 of earning power — management is creating shareholder value.
MS
  • ★Gross margin of 87.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

HAL
  • ⚠Gross margin of 15.3% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 6.9% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
  • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $16.0M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
MS
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 20.2x is 26% above the historical average of 16.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.66 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

Key Valuation Metrics

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HAL
MS
Valuation
$2.03B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
6.95%
FCF Yield
N/A
19.30
Trailing P/E
20.21
11.95
Forward P/E
17.56
Quality & Moat
11.64%
ROIC
3.38%
14.63%
ROE
16.39%
15.28%
Gross Margin
87.39%
0.97
PEG Ratio
2.66
Balance Sheet Safety
0.56
Net Debt / Equity
Net cash
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.47
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
1.88%
Dividend Yield
1.81%
HAL: 3Ties: 3MS: 3
HALMS

Historical Fundamentals

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HAL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

MS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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HAL
$-2.55
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$4.67B
Δ Market Cap
$-11.91B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MS
$6.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$20.84B
Δ Market Cap
+$138.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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HAL
68.3% Margin of Safety
Price is 68.3% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $34.93
Fair Value: $110.26
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MS
25.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 25.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $223.17
Fair Value: $297.53
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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HAL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $35?

+5.8%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market roughly matching historical growth — reasonable.

MS

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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HAL
69/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
MS
80/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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HAL
-2.68
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MS
-2.09
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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HAL
Insiders 0.5%Institutions 89.4%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,602
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MS
Insiders 24.3%Institutions 62.8%Retail & Other 12.9%
No. of Institutional Holders3,208
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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HAL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
WEISS JANET L.
Director
$169,162
@ $19.79 · 2025-05-29
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5,630
PETERSON DOUGLAS L
Director
$5,630
@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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HAL
5
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $34.22M
BECKWITH VAN H.
Officer
$8.19M
@ $41.29 · 2026-05-15
MAXWELL MICHAEL CASEY
Officer
$852,445
@ $41.89 · 2026-05-05
YOUNG TOBI M. EDWARDS
Director
$255,538
@ $41.72 · 2026-04-30
MCKEON TIMOTHY M.
Officer and Treasurer
$363,510
@ $42.00 · 2026-04-30
MILLER JEFFREY ALLEN
Chief Executive Officer
$6.34M
@ $40.00 · 2026-03-27
BECKWITH VAN H.
Officer
$663,481
@ $33.82 · 2026-03-16
SLOCUM JEFFREY SHANNON
Chief Operating Officer
$184,015
@ $33.82 · 2026-03-16
MCKEON TIMOTHY M.
Officer and Treasurer
$132,187
@ $34.37 · 2026-03-06
BANKS MARGARET KATHERINE
Director
$88,855
@ $34.17 · 2026-01-26
BECKWITH VAN H.
Officer
$1.90M
@ $34.96 · 2026-01-23
MILLER JEFFREY ALLEN
Chief Executive Officer
$5.99M
@ $34.96 · 2026-01-23
BECKWITH VAN H.
Officer
$574,875
@ $32.30 · 2026-01-09
SLOCUM JEFFREY SHANNON
Chief Operating Officer
$771,808
@ $32.30 · 2026-01-09
POPE LAWRENCE J.
Officer
$3.23M
@ $32.25 · 2026-01-05
BECKWITH VAN H.
Officer
$246,938
@ $27.89 · 2025-12-05
RICHARD MARK
Officer
$4.44M
@ $27.77 · 2025-11-12
CARRE ERIC
Chief Financial Officer
$1.28M
@ $25.00 · 2025-03-14
MCKEON TIMOTHY M.
Officer and Treasurer
$258,226
@ $24.60 · 2025-03-07
BANKS MARGARET KATHERINE
Director
$93,736
@ $24.03 · 2025-03-04
CARRE ERIC
Chief Financial Officer
$3.69M
@ $26.13 · 2025-02-11
BECKWITH VAN H.
Officer
$367,500
@ $36.75 · 2024-07-18
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MS
4
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $70.42M
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$2.12M
@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$2.78M
@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$3.04M
@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$9.74M
@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$6.02M
@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.44M
@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
YESHAYA SHARON
Chief Financial Officer
$2.94M
@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.55M
@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$5.57M
@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$3.97M
@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$3.69M
@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
$16.43M
@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$2.81M
@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.09M
@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.69M
@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.53M
@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$3.70M
@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$95,459
@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.80M
@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.12M
@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.15M
@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.20M
@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$5.00M
@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
AKRAM RAJA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.38M
@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.78M
@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.52M
@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$368,375
@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26
AKRAM RAJA
Officer
$797,764
@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$106,621
@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.26M
@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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HAL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(45/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MS
FearGreed
😏Greed(70/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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HAL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (45)
MS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)
View HAL Full AnalysisView MS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: HAL vs MS

Is Halliburton Company or Morgan Stanley more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, HAL trades at a 68.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $110 vs. price $35), compared to MS's 25.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $298 vs. $223).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Halliburton Company or Morgan Stanley?▼

MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while HAL scores 69/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼

MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. HAL scores 3.4 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Halliburton Company or Morgan Stanley?▼

HAL earns 11.6% ROIC versus MS's 3.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Halliburton Company's or Morgan Stanley's?▼

HAL's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MS's 79/100 (Safe). HAL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

HAL vs MS: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io