Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS) vs Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, GS is undervalued at $1018, with a DCF intrinsic value of $481431875452 and a margin of safety of 100%. VLO is undervalued at $313, with an intrinsic value of $396 and a margin of safety of 21%. Of the two, GS has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Gross margin of 82.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.58 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 20% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★FCF yield of 9.3% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
- ★Altman Z-Score of 4.64 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.16 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $20.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 24.6 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 16.1% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 4.08 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $313?
The market implies +7.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding -0.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: GS vs VLO
Is Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) or Valero Energy Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, GS trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $481431875452 vs. price $1018), compared to VLO's 20.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $396 vs. $313).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) or Valero Energy Corporation?▼
GS scores 65/100 (Narrow moat), while VLO scores 46/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) in financial distress?▼
GS's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. VLO scores 4.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) or Valero Energy Corporation?▼
VLO earns 32.4% ROIC versus GS's 2.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)'s or Valero Energy Corporation's?▼
VLO's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to GS's 79/100 (Safe). VLO has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.