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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, COST is overvalued at $952, with a DCF intrinsic value of $452 and a margin of safety of -111%. GS is undervalued at $1018, with an intrinsic value of $481431875452 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, GS has the wider margin of safety.

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

$951.89

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)

$1018.38

Rewards

COST

★Costco Wholesale Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Costco Wholesale Corporation scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 30.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

★Gross margin of 82.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.58 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

COST

⚠Gross margin of 12.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.16 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
⚠Insiders have sold $20.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COST

Valuation

$6.95B

Free Cash Flow

N/A

1.65%

FCF Yield

N/A

47.86

Trailing P/E

15.72

42.03

Forward P/E

13.81

Quality & Moat

31.32%

ROIC

2.46%

29.15%

ROE

16.95%

12.88%

Gross Margin

82.08%

4.62

PEG Ratio

1.45

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

Net cash

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

-0.07

Net Debt / EBITDA

N/A

0.62%

Dividend Yield

1.96%

COST: 2Ties: 1GS: 6

COSTGS

Historical Fundamentals

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COST

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COST

$19.41

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$9.28B

Δ Market Cap

+$180.14B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$0.00

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Value Destroyer

Σ Retained

$26.00B

Δ Market Cap

+$535.62

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COST

110.8% Overvalued

Price is 110.8% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $951.89

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $451.66

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

100.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1018.38

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $481431875452.18

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COST

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $952?

+20.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +22.9%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +22.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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COST

96/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

65/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

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COST

-2.65

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.00

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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COST

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 73.8%Retail & Other 26.0%

No. of Institutional Holders5,145

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.5%Institutions 74.8%Retail & Other 24.7%

No. of Institutional Holders3,873

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COST

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

HESS JOHN B JR.

Director

$2.00M

@ $511.68 · 2025-04-15

JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD

Director

$1.49M

@ $619.02 · 2025-01-17

FLAHERTY MARK A

Director

$29,545

@ $360.30 · 2024-09-27

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COST

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $15.13M

DENMAN KENNETH D

Director

$847,345

@ $957.45 · 2026-06-23

FRATES CATON

Officer

$695,100

@ $993.00 · 2026-04-01

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$732,205

@ $1003.02 · 2026-03-09

JONES TERESA A

Officer

$838,318

@ $986.26 · 2026-01-21

DECKER SUSAN LYNNE

Director

$437,390

@ $955.00 · 2026-01-16

KLAUER JAMES C

Officer

$1.41M

@ $939.00 · 2026-01-14

POLIT JAVIER

Officer

$2.26M

@ $866.38 · 2025-12-30

WILCOX WILLIAM RICHARD

Officer

$2.23M

@ $930.13 · 2025-11-07

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$2.53M

@ $935.68 · 2025-10-24

BARBRE TIFFANY MARIE

Divisional Officer

$1.16M

@ $934.91 · 2025-10-24

FRATES CATON

Officer

$1.40M

@ $910.02 · 2025-09-29

JONES TERESA A

Officer

$595,230

@ $992.05 · 2025-08-20

RUBANENKO YORAM B.

Officer

$3.90M

@ $974.96 · 2025-07-14

DECKER SUSAN LYNNE

Director

$536,058

@ $980.00 · 2025-06-18

CALLANS PATRICK J

Officer

$3.01M

@ $1002.77 · 2025-06-09

RIEL PIERRE

Officer

$2.03M

@ $1014.15 · 2025-06-06

KLAUER JAMES C

Officer

$3.92M

@ $981.07 · 2025-04-17

MILLERCHIP GARY

Officer

$1.03M

@ $940.01 · 2025-03-27

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$830,304

@ $922.56 · 2025-03-24

FRATES CATON

Officer

$765,213

@ $900.25 · 2025-03-18

VACHRIS ROLAND MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$3.35M

@ $931.00 · 2025-03-11

GALANTI RICHARD ALAN

Officer and Director

$1.27M

@ $894.97 · 2024-10-24

JONES TERESA A

Officer

$717,236

@ $896.54 · 2024-10-23

RIEL PIERRE

Officer

$1.79M

@ $896.71 · 2024-10-15

FRATES CATON

Officer

$1.50M

@ $883.35 · 2024-09-30

CALLANS PATRICK J

Officer

$2.23M

@ $893.94 · 2024-09-30

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$2.84M

@ $888.99 · 2024-09-30

DECKER SUSAN LYNNE

Director

$543,430

@ $876.50 · 2024-08-15

GALANTI RICHARD ALAN

Officer and Director

$868,962

@ $868.96 · 2024-08-15

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $78.42M

LESLIE ERICKA T

Officer

$287,951

@ $1151.80 · 2026-07-15

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$6.68M

@ $973.55 · 2026-05-14

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$13.42M

@ $939.07 · 2026-05-06

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$634,927

@ $929.61 · 2026-05-01

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$9.57M

@ $929.17 · 2026-05-01

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$3.23M

@ $930.70 · 2026-05-01

GOLTEN ALEXANDER SIMON

Officer

$1.04M

@ $936.18 · 2026-04-23

GOLTEN ALEXANDER SIMON

Officer

$1.02M

@ $919.19 · 2026-04-17

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$10.94M

@ $941.57 · 2026-02-09

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$255,387

@ $938.92 · 2026-01-29

HALIO CAREY

Officer

$2.64M

@ $927.17 · 2026-01-27

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$8.89M

@ $927.51 · 2026-01-23

HALIO CAREY

Officer

$1.62M

@ $920.62 · 2026-01-23

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$4.49M

@ $923.75 · 2026-01-23

WALDRON JOHN E.

President

$13.69M

@ $750.30 · 2025-08-28

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$5.41M

@ $724.40 · 2025-07-25

ROGERS JOHN F W

Officer

$4.31M

@ $717.39 · 2025-07-23

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$4.71M

@ $712.31 · 2025-07-23

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$3.04M

@ $607.17 · 2025-05-14

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$1.50M

@ $622.15 · 2025-02-26

GOLTEN ALEXANDER SIMON

Officer

$3.31M

@ $636.25 · 2025-01-28

HALIO CAREY

Officer and Treasurer

$2.32M

@ $636.74 · 2025-01-24

HALIO CAREY

Officer

$965,120

@ $624.67 · 2025-01-21

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$1.28M

@ $627.01 · 2025-01-21

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$4.76M

@ $634.69 · 2025-01-21

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$4.00M

@ $610.91 · 2024-11-29

VINIAR DAVID A

Director

$3.06M

@ $612.08 · 2024-11-29

ROGERS JOHN F W

Officer

$3.83M

@ $596.36 · 2024-11-06

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$7.67M

@ $593.03 · 2024-11-06

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$1.77M

@ $594.51 · 2024-11-06

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$3.00M

@ $500.29 · 2024-08-15

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COST

😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😐Neutral(53/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COST

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)

View COST Full Analysis View GS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: COST vs GS

Is Costco Wholesale Corporation or Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, GS trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $481431875452 vs. price $1018), compared to COST's -110.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $452 vs. $952).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Costco Wholesale Corporation or Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)?▼

COST scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while GS scores 65/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) in financial distress?▼

GS's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. COST scores 9.2 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Costco Wholesale Corporation or Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)?▼

COST earns 31.3% ROIC versus GS's 2.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Costco Wholesale Corporation's or Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)'s?▼

COST's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to GS's 79/100 (Safe). COST has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.