Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, GOOGL is overvalued at $368, with a DCF intrinsic value of $94 and a margin of safety of -290%. SW is undervalued at $44, with an intrinsic value of $171 and a margin of safety of 74%. Of the two, SW has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 60.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 33.6% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.26 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 8.2 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Smurfit Westrock Plc scores only 29/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $368?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $44?
Market roughly matching historical growth — reasonable.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: GOOGL vs SW
Is Alphabet Inc. or Smurfit Westrock Plc more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, SW trades at a 74.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $171 vs. price $44), compared to GOOGL's -289.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $94 vs. $368).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Alphabet Inc. or Smurfit Westrock Plc?▼
GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while SW scores 29/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc in financial distress?▼
SW's Altman Z-Score of 1.5 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. GOOGL scores 2.4 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Alphabet Inc. or Smurfit Westrock Plc?▼
Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) generates a 5.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Alphabet Inc.'s 1.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Alphabet Inc. or Smurfit Westrock Plc?▼
GOOGL earns 21.0% ROIC versus SW's 5.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Alphabet Inc.'s or Smurfit Westrock Plc's?▼
GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to SW's 33/100 (Unsafe). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.