Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, GOOGL is overvalued at $368, with a DCF intrinsic value of $94 and a margin of safety of -290%. SMCI is undervalued at $31, with an intrinsic value of $73 and a margin of safety of 58%. Of the two, SMCI has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 60.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.99 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.91 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Market sentiment is in extreme fear territory (score: 23/100) — historically, periods of fear have often presented buying opportunities.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Gross margin of 8.4% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 14% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 2 out of 2 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $368?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: GOOGL vs SMCI
Is Alphabet Inc. or Super Micro Computer, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, SMCI trades at a 57.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $73 vs. price $31), compared to GOOGL's -289.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $94 vs. $368).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Alphabet Inc. or Super Micro Computer, Inc.?▼
GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while SMCI scores 52/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Alphabet Inc. in financial distress?▼
GOOGL's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. SMCI scores 4.4 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Alphabet Inc. or Super Micro Computer, Inc.?▼
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) generates a 1.6% free cash flow yield, compared to Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s -40.4%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Alphabet Inc. or Super Micro Computer, Inc.?▼
GOOGL earns 21.0% ROIC versus SMCI's 9.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.