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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs Philip Morris International Inc. (PM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, GOOGL is overvalued at $280, with a DCF intrinsic value of $8 and a margin of safety of -3448%. PM is overvalued at $209, with an intrinsic value of $143 and a margin of safety of -46%. Of the two, PM has the wider margin of safety.

GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$279.84
VS
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
$208.79

Rewards

GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 60.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
PM
  • ★Philip Morris International Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 67.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Philip Morris International Inc. scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

GOOGL
    PM
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 30.5x is 44% above the historical average of 21.2x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
    • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.75 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    GOOGL
    PM
    Valuation
    $-1.16B
    Free Cash Flow
    $11.53B
    -0.03%
    FCF Yield
    3.54%
    14.61
    Trailing P/E
    30.48
    18.49
    Forward P/E
    23.05
    Quality & Moat
    14.30%
    ROIC
    29.94%
    44.29%
    ROE
    N/A
    60.86%
    Gross Margin
    67.70%
    0.98
    PEG Ratio
    2.75
    Balance Sheet Safety
    Net cash
    Net Debt / Equity
    N/A
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    -0.62
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.04
    0.31%
    Dividend Yield
    3.07%
    GOOGL: 4Ties: 1PM: 5
    GOOGLPM

    Historical Fundamentals

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    GOOGL

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    PM

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    GOOGL
    $9.18
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $288.67B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$2.65T
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    PM
    $64.75
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $1.43B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$92.79B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    GOOGL
    3447.8% Overvalued
    Price is 3447.8% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $279.84
    Fair Value: $7.89
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    PM
    46.3% Overvalued
    Price is 46.3% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $208.79
    Fair Value: $142.67
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    GOOGL

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    PM

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $209?

    +13.7%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +14.0%

    The market implies +13.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +14.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    GOOGL
    89/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    PM
    100/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    GOOGL
    -2.92
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    PM
    -2.39
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    GOOGL
    Insiders 1.6%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 17.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders7,451
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    PM
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.4%Retail & Other 15.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,576
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    GOOGL
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    PM
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    GOOGL
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    No open market insider sales found.
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    PM
    0
    Sells (3M)
    5
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $27.72M
    KENNEDY STACEY
    Officer
    $2.63M
    @ $183.13 · 2026-02-20
    GUERIN YANN
    Officer
    $726,760
    @ $181.69 · 2026-02-19
    DE WILDE FREDERIC J
    Officer
    $3.65M
    @ $182.58 · 2026-02-19
    OLCZAK JACEK
    Officer and Director
    $14.57M
    @ $182.18 · 2026-02-19
    BABEAU EMMANUEL
    Officer
    $6.14M
    @ $181.61 · 2026-02-19
    DAHLGREN LARS
    Officer
    $562,740
    @ $152.96 · 2025-03-06
    ANDOLINA MASSIMO
    Officer
    $2.73M
    @ $156.05 · 2025-02-24
    BARTH WERNER
    Officer
    $1.49M
    @ $148.67 · 2025-02-20
    OLCZAK JACEK
    Chief Executive Officer
    $5.95M
    @ $148.87 · 2025-02-20
    CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
    Chairman of the Board
    $6.06M
    @ $149.06 · 2025-02-20
    BABEAU EMMANUEL
    Chief Financial Officer
    $4.47M
    @ $148.85 · 2025-02-20
    GUERIN YANN
    General Counsel
    $378,200
    @ $151.28 · 2025-02-20
    DE WILDE FREDERIC J
    Officer
    $2.17M
    @ $144.54 · 2025-02-07
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    GOOGL
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(23/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    PM
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(67/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    GOOGL
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (23)
    PM
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (67)
    View GOOGL Full AnalysisView PM Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: GOOGL vs PM

    Is Alphabet Inc. or Philip Morris International Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, PM trades at a -46.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $143 vs. price $209), compared to GOOGL's -3447.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $8 vs. $280).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Alphabet Inc. or Philip Morris International Inc.?▼

    PM scores 100/100 (Wide moat), while GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is Alphabet Inc. in financial distress?▼

    GOOGL's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. PM scores 3.9 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, Alphabet Inc. or Philip Morris International Inc.?▼

    Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) generates a 3.5% free cash flow yield, compared to Alphabet Inc.'s -0.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Alphabet Inc. or Philip Morris International Inc.?▼

    PM earns 29.9% ROIC versus GOOGL's 14.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Alphabet Inc.'s or Philip Morris International Inc.'s?▼

    GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to PM's 34/100 (Unsafe). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.