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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs KeyCorp (KEY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, GOOGL is overvalued at $368, with a DCF intrinsic value of $94 and a margin of safety of -290%. KEY is undervalued at $23, with an intrinsic value of $51 and a margin of safety of 56%. Of the two, KEY has the wider margin of safety.

GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$368.03
VS
KEY
KeyCorp
$22.59

Rewards

GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 60.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
KEY

    Risks

    GOOGL
    • ⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
    KEY
    • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠Share count has increased by 18% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
    • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.24 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    GOOGL
    KEY
    Valuation
    $73.27B
    Free Cash Flow
    N/A
    1.63%
    FCF Yield
    N/A
    28.09
    Trailing P/E
    13.86
    25.39
    Forward P/E
    10.51
    Quality & Moat
    20.98%
    ROIC
    11.53%
    38.88%
    ROE
    9.98%
    60.37%
    Gross Margin
    0.00%
    1.47
    PEG Ratio
    1.74
    Balance Sheet Safety
    Net cash
    Net Debt / Equity
    N/A
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    -0.19
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    N/A
    0.24%
    Dividend Yield
    3.63%
    GOOGL: 4Ties: 1KEY: 3
    GOOGLKEY

    Historical Fundamentals

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    GOOGL

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    KEY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    GOOGL
    $9.18
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $288.67B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$2.65T
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    KEY
    N/A
    Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
    Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
    Σ Retained
    $-257.0M
    Δ Market Cap
    +$6.50B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    GOOGL
    289.6% Overvalued
    Price is 289.6% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $368.03
    Fair Value: $94.46
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    KEY
    56.1% Margin of Safety
    Price is 56.1% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $22.59
    Fair Value: $51.43
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    GOOGL

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $368?

    +22.9%
    Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

    Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

    KEY

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    Economic Moat Score

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    GOOGL
    89/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    KEY
    47/100
    Narrow Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    GOOGL
    -2.92
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    KEY
    -2.60
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    GOOGL
    Insiders 1.2%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 18.1%
    No. of Institutional Holders7,263
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    KEY
    Insiders 0.3%Institutions 88.9%Retail & Other 10.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,225
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    GOOGL
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    KEY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    ALLARD JACQUELINE
    Director
    $2,525
    @ $14.03 · 2025-04-22
    TOBIN RICHARD J.
    Director
    $10,380
    @ $13.84 · 2025-04-21
    KHANNA SOMESH
    Director
    $1,387
    @ $13.87 · 2025-04-21
    RAMANI MOHIT
    Officer
    $137,500
    @ $13.75 · 2025-04-21
    BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $892,500
    @ $17.85 · 2025-02-05
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    GOOGL
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    No open market insider sales found.
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    KEY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    9
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $8.77M
    GILE ELIZABETH R
    Director
    $499,992
    @ $20.88 · 2026-06-03
    MAGO ANGELA G
    Officer
    $494,411
    @ $21.66 · 2026-05-08
    PAINE ANDREW J III
    Officer
    $1.53M
    @ $23.23 · 2026-02-06
    MAGO ANGELA G
    Officer
    $1.35M
    @ $21.55 · 2026-01-29
    EVANS KATRINA M.
    Officer
    $710,789
    @ $21.74 · 2026-01-22
    PAINE ANDREW J III
    Officer
    $867,143
    @ $19.29 · 2025-09-09
    BRADY AMY G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $880,500
    @ $17.61 · 2025-08-08
    EVANS KATRINA M.
    Officer
    $317,390
    @ $18.67 · 2025-07-24
    GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
    Chief Executive Officer
    $2.12M
    @ $18.86 · 2025-07-23
    BRADY AMY G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $305,710
    @ $16.09 · 2025-06-12
    HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
    Director
    $83,000
    @ $16.60 · 2025-05-13
    KIDIK ALLYSON M
    Officer
    $17,973
    @ $17.69 · 2025-02-14
    GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $17.46 · 2025-02-13
    MAGO ANGELA G
    Officer
    $294,065
    @ $19.59 · 2024-11-06
    PAINE ANDREW J III
    Officer
    $1.26M
    @ $19.03 · 2024-11-06
    HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
    Director
    $154,260
    @ $17.14 · 2024-11-05
    BRADY AMY G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $719,692
    @ $16.92 · 2024-08-29
    HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
    Director
    $162,100
    @ $16.21 · 2024-08-16
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    GOOGL
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(58/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    KEY
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(70/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    GOOGL
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (58)
    KEY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)
    View GOOGL Full AnalysisView KEY Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: GOOGL vs KEY

    Is Alphabet Inc. or KeyCorp more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, KEY trades at a 56.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $51 vs. price $23), compared to GOOGL's -289.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $94 vs. $368).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Alphabet Inc. or KeyCorp?▼

    GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while KEY scores 47/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is KeyCorp in financial distress?▼

    KEY's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. GOOGL scores 2.4 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Alphabet Inc. or KeyCorp?▼

    GOOGL earns 21.0% ROIC versus KEY's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Alphabet Inc.'s or KeyCorp's?▼

    GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to KEY's 78/100 (Safe). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.