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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs KeyCorp (KEY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, GOOGL is overvalued at $280, with a DCF intrinsic value of $8 and a margin of safety of -3448%. KEY is undervalued at $21, with an intrinsic value of $45 and a margin of safety of 53%. Of the two, KEY has the wider margin of safety.

GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$279.84
VS
KEY
KeyCorp
$21.12

Rewards

GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 60.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
KEY

    Risks

    GOOGL
      KEY
      • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
      • ⚠Share count has increased by 18% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
      • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.24 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

      Key Valuation Metrics

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      GOOGL
      KEY
      Valuation
      $-1.16B
      Free Cash Flow
      N/A
      -0.03%
      FCF Yield
      N/A
      14.61
      Trailing P/E
      11.60
      18.49
      Forward P/E
      9.72
      Quality & Moat
      14.30%
      ROIC
      13.38%
      44.29%
      ROE
      11.17%
      60.86%
      Gross Margin
      0.00%
      0.98
      PEG Ratio
      1.37
      Balance Sheet Safety
      Net cash
      Net Debt / Equity
      N/A
      N/A
      Interest Coverage
      N/A
      -0.62
      Net Debt / EBITDA
      N/A
      0.31%
      Dividend Yield
      3.88%
      GOOGL: 4Ties: 1KEY: 3
      GOOGLKEY

      Historical Fundamentals

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      GOOGL

      Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

      KEY

      Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

      Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

      $1 Retained Earnings Test

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      GOOGL
      $9.18
      created per $1 retained over 3 years
      Exceptional Value Creator
      Σ Retained
      $288.67B
      Δ Market Cap
      +$2.65T
      Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
      > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
      KEY
      N/A
      Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
      Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
      Σ Retained
      $-257.0M
      Δ Market Cap
      +$6.50B
      Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
      > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

      Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
      > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

      Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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      GOOGL
      3447.8% Overvalued
      Price is 3447.8% above estimated fair value
      Current Price: $279.84
      Fair Value: $7.89
      Strongly undervalued
      Undervalued
      Fairly valued
      Overvalued
      Strongly overvalued
      KEY
      52.6% Margin of Safety
      Price is 52.6% below estimated fair value
      Current Price: $21.12
      Fair Value: $44.52
      Strongly undervalued
      Undervalued
      Fairly valued
      Overvalued
      Strongly overvalued

      Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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      GOOGL

      Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

      KEY

      Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

      Economic Moat Score

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      GOOGL
      89/100
      Wide Moat
      70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

      Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

      Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
      KEY
      47/100
      Narrow Moat
      70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

      Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

      Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

      Forensic Accounting

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      GOOGL
      -2.92
      Unlikely Manipulator
      Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

      M-Score Trend

      Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
      KEY
      -2.60
      Unlikely Manipulator
      Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
      Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

      Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

      Ownership Breakdown

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      GOOGL
      Insiders 1.6%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 17.6%
      No. of Institutional Holders7,451
      High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
      KEY
      Insiders 0.3%Institutions 90.5%Retail & Other 9.2%
      No. of Institutional Holders1,295
      High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

      High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

      Insider Buying Activity

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      GOOGL
      0
      Buys (3M)
      0
      Buys (12M)
      No open market insider purchases found.
      Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
      KEY
      0
      Buys (3M)
      0
      Buys (12M)
      ALLARD JACQUELINE
      Director
      $2,525
      @ $14.03 · 2025-04-22
      TOBIN RICHARD J.
      Director
      $10,380
      @ $13.84 · 2025-04-21
      KHANNA SOMESH
      Director
      $1,387
      @ $13.87 · 2025-04-21
      RAMANI MOHIT
      Officer
      $137,500
      @ $13.75 · 2025-04-21
      BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
      Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
      $892,500
      @ $17.85 · 2025-02-05
      Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

      Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

      Insider Selling Activity

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      GOOGL
      0
      Sells (3M)
      0
      Sells (12M)
      No open market insider sales found.
      Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
      KEY
      1
      Sells (3M)
      7
      Sells (12M)
      Total value (12M): $5.99M
      PAINE ANDREW J III
      Officer
      $829,556
      @ $21.20 · 2026-10-28
      RAMANI MOHIT
      Officer
      $568,500
      @ $22.74 · 2026-07-22
      GILE ELIZABETH R
      Director
      $499,992
      @ $20.88 · 2026-06-03
      MAGO ANGELA G
      Officer
      $494,411
      @ $21.66 · 2026-05-08
      PAINE ANDREW J III
      Officer
      $1.53M
      @ $23.23 · 2026-02-06
      MAGO ANGELA G
      Officer
      $1.35M
      @ $21.55 · 2026-01-29
      EVANS KATRINA M.
      Officer
      $710,789
      @ $21.74 · 2026-01-22
      PAINE ANDREW J III
      Officer
      $867,143
      @ $19.29 · 2025-09-09
      BRADY AMY G
      Chief Technology Officer
      $880,500
      @ $17.61 · 2025-08-08
      EVANS KATRINA M.
      Officer
      $317,390
      @ $18.67 · 2025-07-24
      GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
      Chief Executive Officer
      $2.12M
      @ $18.86 · 2025-07-23
      BRADY AMY G
      Chief Technology Officer
      $305,710
      @ $16.09 · 2025-06-12
      HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
      Director
      $83,000
      @ $16.60 · 2025-05-13
      KIDIK ALLYSON M
      Officer
      $17,973
      @ $17.69 · 2025-02-14
      GORMAN CHRISTOPHER M
      Chief Executive Officer
      $1.01M
      @ $17.46 · 2025-02-13
      MAGO ANGELA G
      Officer
      $294,065
      @ $19.59 · 2024-11-06
      PAINE ANDREW J III
      Officer
      $1.26M
      @ $19.03 · 2024-11-06
      HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEE
      Director
      $154,260
      @ $17.14 · 2024-11-05
      Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

      Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

      🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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      GOOGL
      FearGreed
      😨Fear(23/100)

      "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

      Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
      KEY
      FearGreed
      😏Greed(63/100)

      "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

      Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

      Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

      ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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      GOOGL
      ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

      The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

      DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (23)
      KEY
      ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

      The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

      DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (63)
      View GOOGL Full AnalysisView KEY Full Analysis

      Frequently Asked Questions: GOOGL vs KEY

      Is Alphabet Inc. or KeyCorp more undervalued in 2026?▼

      Based on our discounted cash flow model, KEY trades at a 52.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $45 vs. price $21), compared to GOOGL's -3447.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $8 vs. $280).

      Which stock has a wider economic moat, Alphabet Inc. or KeyCorp?▼

      GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while KEY scores 47/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

      Is KeyCorp in financial distress?▼

      KEY's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. GOOGL scores 2.4 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

      Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Alphabet Inc. or KeyCorp?▼

      GOOGL earns 14.3% ROIC versus KEY's 13.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

      Which dividend is safer, Alphabet Inc.'s or KeyCorp's?▼

      GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to KEY's 78/100 (Safe). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.

      GOOGL vs KEY: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io