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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs Humana Inc. (HUM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, GOOGL is overvalued at $280, with a DCF intrinsic value of $8 and a margin of safety of -3448%. HUM is undervalued at $415, with an intrinsic value of $1003 and a margin of safety of 59%. Of the two, HUM has the wider margin of safety.

GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$279.84
VS
HUM
Humana Inc.
$414.50

Rewards

GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 60.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
HUM
  • ★Humana Inc. scores 98/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.08 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
  • ★Net debt/EBITDA of -2.5x means the company holds more cash than debt — a net cash position.

Risks

GOOGL
    HUM
    • ⚠Gross margin of 13.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 39.2x is 61% above the historical average of 24.3x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
    • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 52.3% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    GOOGL
    HUM
    Valuation
    $-1.16B
    Free Cash Flow
    $1.94B
    -0.03%
    FCF Yield
    3.90%
    14.61
    Trailing P/E
    39.18
    18.49
    Forward P/E
    24.26
    Quality & Moat
    14.30%
    ROIC
    11.72%
    44.29%
    ROE
    6.89%
    60.86%
    Gross Margin
    13.65%
    0.98
    PEG Ratio
    1.14
    Balance Sheet Safety
    Net cash
    Net Debt / Equity
    Net cash
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    -0.62
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    -2.54
    0.31%
    Dividend Yield
    0.85%
    GOOGL: 6Ties: 1HUM: 5
    GOOGLHUM

    Historical Fundamentals

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    GOOGL

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    HUM

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    GOOGL
    $9.18
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $288.67B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$2.65T
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    HUM
    $-9.22
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $3.59B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-33.12B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    GOOGL
    3447.8% Overvalued
    Price is 3447.8% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $279.84
    Fair Value: $7.89
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    HUM
    58.7% Margin of Safety
    Price is 58.7% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $414.50
    Fair Value: $1003.29
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    GOOGL

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    HUM

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $415?

    +12.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +8.3%

    The market implies +12.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    GOOGL
    89/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    HUM
    98/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    GOOGL
    -2.92
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    HUM
    -2.27
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    GOOGL
    Insiders 1.6%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 17.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders7,451
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    HUM
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 101.4%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,327
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    GOOGL
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    HUM
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $150,016
    SHETTY SANJAY K
    Officer
    $150,016
    @ $185.20 · 2026-02-23
    RECHTIN JAMES A.
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.50M
    @ $229.25 · 2025-05-14
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    GOOGL
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    No open market insider sales found.
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    HUM
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    HUVAL TIMOTHY S.
    Officer
    $948,925
    @ $256.26 · 2024-12-31
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    GOOGL
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(23/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    HUM
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(54/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    GOOGL
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (23)
    HUM
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (54)
    View GOOGL Full AnalysisView HUM Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: GOOGL vs HUM

    Is Alphabet Inc. or Humana Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, HUM trades at a 58.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1003 vs. price $415), compared to GOOGL's -3447.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $8 vs. $280).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Alphabet Inc. or Humana Inc.?▼

    HUM scores 98/100 (Wide moat), while GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is Alphabet Inc. in financial distress?▼

    GOOGL's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. HUM scores 4.1 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, Alphabet Inc. or Humana Inc.?▼

    Humana Inc. (HUM) generates a 3.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Alphabet Inc.'s -0.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Alphabet Inc. or Humana Inc.?▼

    GOOGL earns 14.3% ROIC versus HUM's 11.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Alphabet Inc.'s or Humana Inc.'s?▼

    GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to HUM's 55/100 (Borderline). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.

    GOOGL vs HUM: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io