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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs The Hershey Company (HSY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, GOOGL is overvalued at $368, with a DCF intrinsic value of $94 and a margin of safety of -290%. HSY is overvalued at $173, with an intrinsic value of $144 and a margin of safety of -20%. Of the two, HSY has the wider margin of safety.

GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$368.03
VS
HSY
The Hershey Company
$172.63

Rewards

GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 60.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
HSY
  • ★The Hershey Company has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★The Hershey Company scores 72/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Management has timed buybacks well — 2 out of 3 years showed value-accretive repurchases.

Risks

GOOGL
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
HSY
  • ⚠25 insider sales totaling $101.8M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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GOOGL
HSY
Valuation
$73.27B
Free Cash Flow
$1.53B
1.63%
FCF Yield
4.36%
28.09
Trailing P/E
32.15
25.39
Forward P/E
17.37
Quality & Moat
20.98%
ROIC
19.41%
38.88%
ROE
23.23%
60.37%
Gross Margin
35.03%
1.47
PEG Ratio
1.05
Balance Sheet Safety
Net cash
Net Debt / Equity
1.01
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.19
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.13
0.24%
Dividend Yield
3.18%
GOOGL: 7Ties: 1HSY: 4
GOOGLHSY

Historical Fundamentals

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GOOGL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

HSY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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GOOGL
$9.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$288.67B
Δ Market Cap
+$2.65T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
HSY
$-5.53
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$1.91B
Δ Market Cap
$-10.55B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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GOOGL
289.6% Overvalued
Price is 289.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $368.03
Fair Value: $94.46
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
HSY
20.3% Overvalued
Price is 20.3% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $172.63
Fair Value: $143.53
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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GOOGL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $368?

+22.9%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

HSY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $173?

+18.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +11.3%

The market implies +18.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +11.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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GOOGL
89/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
HSY
72/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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GOOGL
-2.92
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
HSY
-2.78
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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GOOGL
Insiders 1.2%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 18.1%
No. of Institutional Holders7,263
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
HSY
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 87.9%Retail & Other 11.8%
No. of Institutional Holders1,935
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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GOOGL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
HSY
0
Buys (3M)
3
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $445,411
SCHECHTMAN NATALIE S
Officer
$37,258
@ $186.29 · 2025-11-24
TANNER KIRK L.
Chief Executive Officer
$370,915
@ $185.46 · 2025-11-21
TAFFET STACY
Officer
$37,238
@ $186.19 · 2025-11-21
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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GOOGL
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
HSY
25
Sells (3M)
47
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $131.91M
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.63M
@ $181.34 · 2026-06-12
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$5.29M
@ $176.31 · 2026-06-10
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.67M
@ $183.74 · 2026-06-05
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.91M
@ $195.74 · 2026-05-29
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $195.08 · 2026-05-27
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.85M
@ $192.47 · 2026-05-22
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$5.75M
@ $191.59 · 2026-05-20
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$279,375
@ $186.25 · 2026-05-18
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.79M
@ $189.55 · 2026-05-15
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$5.74M
@ $191.37 · 2026-05-13
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.72M
@ $185.94 · 2026-05-08
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$5.52M
@ $184.08 · 2026-05-06
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.68M
@ $184.14 · 2026-05-01
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.84M
@ $191.94 · 2026-04-24
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$5.72M
@ $190.58 · 2026-04-22
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$291,150
@ $194.10 · 2026-04-20
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.85M
@ $192.27 · 2026-04-17
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$5.89M
@ $196.46 · 2026-04-15
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$4.15M
@ $207.46 · 2026-04-10
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$6.23M
@ $207.76 · 2026-04-08
ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL
Director
$26,161
@ $202.80 · 2026-04-02
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.05M
@ $204.51 · 2026-04-02
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$6.26M
@ $208.60 · 2026-04-01
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$6.42M
@ $214.13 · 2026-03-27
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$4.31M
@ $215.34 · 2026-03-24
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$6.36M
@ $211.92 · 2026-03-20
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$325,065
@ $216.71 · 2026-03-18
HERSHEY TRUST CO
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$4.37M
@ $218.58 · 2026-03-17
REIMAN JASON R
Officer
$452,140
@ $226.07 · 2026-02-24
GROVER ROHIT
Officer
$791,245
@ $226.07 · 2026-02-24
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$329,490
@ $219.66 · 2026-02-18
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$298,005
@ $198.67 · 2026-01-20
ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL
Director
$23,933
@ $184.10 · 2026-01-05
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$282,765
@ $188.51 · 2025-12-18
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$269,340
@ $179.56 · 2025-11-18
ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL
Director
$50,971
@ $168.22 · 2025-11-03
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$281,280
@ $187.52 · 2025-10-20
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$283,680
@ $189.12 · 2025-09-18
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$267,795
@ $178.53 · 2025-08-18
BUCK MICHELE G
Chief Executive Officer
$3.74M
@ $194.00 · 2025-07-30
BUCK MICHELE G
Chief Executive Officer
$3.57M
@ $185.00 · 2025-07-23
GROVER ROHIT
Officer
$240,120
@ $180.00 · 2025-07-21
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$900,000
@ $180.00 · 2025-07-21
BUCK MICHELE G
Chief Executive Officer
$3.47M
@ $180.00 · 2025-07-21
TUROFF JAMES
General Counsel
$227,500
@ $175.00 · 2025-07-01
GROVER ROHIT
Officer
$233,275
@ $175.00 · 2025-07-01
BUCK MICHELE G
Chief Executive Officer
$3.38M
@ $175.00 · 2025-07-01
TUROFF JAMES
General Counsel
$214,500
@ $165.00 · 2025-06-09
GROVER ROHIT
Officer
$219,945
@ $165.00 · 2025-06-09
TUROFF JAMES
General Counsel
$209,040
@ $160.80 · 2025-05-30
BUCK MICHELE G
Chief Executive Officer
$5.02M
@ $160.80 · 2025-05-30
MCCALMAN JENNIFER L.
Officer
$153,025
@ $157.11 · 2025-05-28
MALCOLM ROBERT M.
Director
$907,267
@ $165.32 · 2025-05-02
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
$540,000
@ $180.00 · 2025-02-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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GOOGL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(58/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
HSY
FearGreed
😨Fear(28/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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GOOGL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (58)
HSY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (28)
View GOOGL Full AnalysisView HSY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: GOOGL vs HSY

Is Alphabet Inc. or The Hershey Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, HSY trades at a -20.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $144 vs. price $173), compared to GOOGL's -289.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $94 vs. $368).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Alphabet Inc. or The Hershey Company?▼

GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while HSY scores 72/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Alphabet Inc. in financial distress?▼

GOOGL's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. HSY scores 4.2 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Alphabet Inc. or The Hershey Company?▼

The Hershey Company (HSY) generates a 4.4% free cash flow yield, compared to Alphabet Inc.'s 1.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Alphabet Inc. or The Hershey Company?▼

GOOGL earns 21.0% ROIC versus HSY's 19.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Alphabet Inc.'s or The Hershey Company's?▼

GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to HSY's 30/100 (Unsafe). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.

GOOGL vs HSY: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io