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Fox Corporation (FOX) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, FOX is undervalued at $47, with a DCF intrinsic value of $410 and a margin of safety of 89%. LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with an intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. Of the two, FOX has the wider margin of safety.

FOX
Fox Corporation
$46.95
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57

Rewards

FOX
  • ★Fox Corporation scores 85/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 23.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 19% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

FOX
    LLY
    • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    FOX
    LLY
    Valuation
    $2.99B
    Free Cash Flow
    $9.16B
    15.18%
    FCF Yield
    0.93%
    12.36
    Trailing P/E
    39.00
    8.28
    Forward P/E
    24.69
    Quality & Moat
    14.59%
    ROIC
    37.80%
    15.20%
    ROE
    107.46%
    36.84%
    Gross Margin
    82.83%
    N/A
    PEG Ratio
    1.50
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.36
    Net Debt / Equity
    1.22
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    1.12
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.05
    1.17%
    Dividend Yield
    0.56%
    FOX: 5Ties: 1LLY: 5
    FOXLLY

    Historical Fundamentals

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    FOX

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    LLY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    FOX
    $3.21
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $4.15B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$13.32B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    LLY
    $27.49
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $22.34B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$614.01B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    FOX
    88.5% Margin of Safety
    Price is 88.5% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $46.95
    Fair Value: $409.65
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    LLY
    3.9% Margin of Safety
    Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $1098.57
    Fair Value: $1143.11
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    FOX

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $47?

    -1.6%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -5.2%

    The market implies -1.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -5.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    LLY

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

    +20.0%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +31.4%

    The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    Economic Moat Score

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    FOX
    85/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Reinvestment Efficiency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    LLY
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    FOX
    -2.59
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    LLY
    -1.83
    Possible Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    FOX
    Insiders 39.7%Institutions 65.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders808
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    LLY
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders5,580
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    FOX
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.78B
    LGC HOLDCO, LLC
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $1.78B
    @ $51.80 · 2025-09-10
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    LLY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    8
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.54M
    MONTARCE LUCAS E
    Chief Financial Officer
    $494,627
    @ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
    VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
    Officer
    $647,360
    @ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
    ALVAREZ RALPH
    Director
    $500,473
    @ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
    FYRWALD J. ERIK
    Director
    $1.01M
    @ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
    RICKS DAVID A
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.05M
    @ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
    SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
    Officer
    $634,405
    @ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
    SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
    Director
    $75,018
    @ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
    JACKSON JAMERE
    Director
    $127,913
    @ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    FOX
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    No open market insider sales found.
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    LLY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    41
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $3.86B
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $2.88M
    @ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $15.75M
    @ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $322.38M
    @ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $1.51M
    @ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.90M
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $2.85M
    @ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260,409
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.08M
    @ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $17.34M
    @ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $152.06M
    @ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $111.50M
    @ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $39.07M
    @ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $176.10M
    @ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $62.31M
    @ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $10.19M
    @ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $183.33M
    @ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $48.02M
    @ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $308.41M
    @ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $279.35M
    @ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $16.41M
    @ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $167.09M
    @ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $38.47M
    @ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $479,038
    @ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $266.65M
    @ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260.17M
    @ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.16M
    @ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $9.04M
    @ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.23M
    @ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $22.72M
    @ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $137.04M
    @ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.22M
    @ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $92.50M
    @ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $107.36M
    @ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $177.29M
    @ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.79M
    @ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $18.06M
    @ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $81.53M
    @ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $734,930
    @ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $783,762
    @ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $225.42M
    @ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $716,410
    @ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $936,550
    @ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    FOX
    FearGreed
    🥶Extreme Fear(19/100)

    "Mr. Market is panicking — potential buying opportunity if fundamentals are strong"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    LLY
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    FOX
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Extreme Fear (19)
    LLY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    View FOX Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: FOX vs LLY

    Is Fox Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, FOX trades at a 88.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $410 vs. price $47), compared to LLY's 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $1143 vs. $1099).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Fox Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    FOX scores 85/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Which company has better free cash flow, Fox Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    Fox Corporation (FOX) generates a 15.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Fox Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus FOX's 14.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Fox Corporation's or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

    FOX's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). FOX has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.