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Compare Stocks › FICO vs LLY

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, FICO is undervalued at $1096, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1604 and a margin of safety of 32%. LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with an intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. Of the two, FICO has the wider margin of safety.

FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation
$1096.48
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57

Rewards

FICO
  • ★Fair Isaac Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 84.2% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Fair Isaac Corporation scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

FICO
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠10 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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FICO
LLY
Valuation
$730.54M
Free Cash Flow
$9.16B
2.87%
FCF Yield
0.93%
34.75
Trailing P/E
39.00
20.14
Forward P/E
24.69
Quality & Moat
28.36%
ROIC
37.80%
N/A
ROE
107.46%
84.17%
Gross Margin
82.83%
0.80
PEG Ratio
1.50
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
1.22
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.96
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.05
0.00%
Dividend Yield
0.56%
FICO: 4Ties: 2LLY: 4
FICOLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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FICO

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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FICO
$15.76
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$1.59B
Δ Market Cap
+$25.12B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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FICO
31.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 31.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1096.48
Fair Value: $1603.65
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
3.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1143.11
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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FICO

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1096?

+18.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +17.0%

The market implies +18.5% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +17.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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FICO
100/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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FICO
-2.68
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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FICO
Insiders 2.8%Institutions 95.4%Retail & Other 1.8%
No. of Institutional Holders1,272
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,580
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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FICO
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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FICO
0
Sells (3M)
10
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $42.58M
MANOLIS EVA
Director
$638,368
@ $1227.63 · 2026-02-25
WEBER STEVEN P.
Chief Financial Officer
$2.58M
@ $1810.00 · 2025-12-17
MANOLIS EVA
Director
$951,257
@ $1825.83 · 2025-12-12
MCMORRIS MARC F
Director
$434,287
@ $1809.53 · 2025-11-26
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$8.06M
@ $1631.34 · 2025-10-14
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$1.76M
@ $1650.17 · 2025-10-14
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$9.24M
@ $1537.50 · 2025-09-09
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$9.03M
@ $1501.84 · 2025-08-28
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$5.97M
@ $1565.99 · 2025-07-08
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$3.92M
@ $1780.48 · 2025-07-08
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$10.62M
@ $1767.82 · 2025-06-10
WEBER STEVEN P.
Chief Financial Officer
$1.74M
@ $1738.25 · 2025-06-09
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$11.64M
@ $2147.97 · 2025-05-13
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$1.28M
@ $2170.34 · 2025-05-13
MCMORRIS MARC F
Director
$1.66M
@ $2087.50 · 2025-05-09
BOWERS THOMAS A
Officer
$8.39M
@ $2057.05 · 2025-05-02
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$5.14M
@ $1683.35 · 2025-04-08
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$5.21M
@ $1761.13 · 2025-04-08
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$3.25M
@ $1694.38 · 2025-03-11
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$7.07M
@ $1727.69 · 2025-03-11
LANSING WILLIAM J
Chief Executive Officer
$10.84M
@ $1804.23 · 2025-02-11
WEBER STEVEN P.
Chief Financial Officer
$273,054
@ $1964.42 · 2025-01-08
MCMORRIS MARC F
Director
$1.12M
@ $2152.57 · 2024-12-17
WEHMANN JAMES M.
Officer
$6.59M
@ $2195.19 · 2024-12-12
SCADINA MARK R
General Counsel
$2,390
@ $2390.00 · 2024-12-09
SCADINA MARK R
General Counsel
$6.16M
@ $2389.99 · 2024-12-06
WEHMANN JAMES M.
Officer
$8.31M
@ $2373.85 · 2024-12-05
WEHMANN JAMES M.
Officer
$8.12M
@ $2320.41 · 2024-11-21
KELLY BRADEN R
Director
$9.10M
@ $2343.43 · 2024-11-11
BOWERS THOMAS A
Officer
$6.27M
@ $2338.21 · 2024-11-11
STANSBURY HENRY TAYLOE
Director
$582,299
@ $2338.55 · 2024-11-11
REY DAVID A
Director
$10.95M
@ $2340.28 · 2024-11-11
REES JOANNA
Director
$6.93M
@ $1750.00 · 2024-09-05
MCMORRIS MARC F
Director
$2.59M
@ $1749.33 · 2024-08-13
BOWERS THOMAS A
Officer
$5.15M
@ $1715.27 · 2024-08-12
WEBER STEVEN P.
Chief Financial Officer
$3.12M
@ $1735.00 · 2024-08-09
SCADINA MARK R
General Counsel
$6.00M
@ $1714.18 · 2024-08-08
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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FICO
FearGreed
😨Fear(26/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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FICO
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (26)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
View FICO Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: FICO vs LLY

Is Fair Isaac Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, FICO trades at a 31.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1604 vs. price $1096), compared to LLY's 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $1143 vs. $1099).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Fair Isaac Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

FICO scores 100/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Fair Isaac Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) generates a 2.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Fair Isaac Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus FICO's 28.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.