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Compare Stocks › FDX vs LLY

FedEx Corporation (FDX) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, FDX is overvalued at $326, with a DCF intrinsic value of $134 and a margin of safety of -143%. LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with an intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

FDX
FedEx Corporation
$326.20
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57

Rewards

FDX
    LLY
    • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
    • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
    • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

    Risks

    FDX
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 17.4x is 40% above the historical average of 12.5x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
    • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $18.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
    LLY
    • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    FDX
    LLY
    Valuation
    $2.98B
    Free Cash Flow
    $9.16B
    3.83%
    FCF Yield
    0.93%
    17.42
    Trailing P/E
    39.00
    17.26
    Forward P/E
    24.69
    Quality & Moat
    7.02%
    ROIC
    37.80%
    15.87%
    ROE
    107.46%
    27.55%
    Gross Margin
    82.83%
    1.42
    PEG Ratio
    1.50
    Balance Sheet Safety
    1.13
    Net Debt / Equity
    1.22
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    2.92
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.05
    1.78%
    Dividend Yield
    0.56%
    FDX: 6Ties: 1LLY: 5
    FDXLLY

    Historical Fundamentals

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    FDX

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    LLY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    FDX
    $2.22
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $8.62B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$19.13B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    LLY
    $27.49
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $22.34B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$614.01B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    FDX
    142.9% Overvalued
    Price is 142.9% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $326.20
    Fair Value: $134.28
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    LLY
    3.9% Margin of Safety
    Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $1098.57
    Fair Value: $1143.11
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    FDX

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $326?

    +11.3%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +16.2%

    The market implies +11.3% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    LLY

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

    +20.0%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +31.4%

    The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    Economic Moat Score

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    FDX
    54/100
    Narrow Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    LLY
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    FDX
    -2.48
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    LLY
    -1.83
    Possible Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    FDX
    Insiders 7.5%Institutions 81.5%Retail & Other 11.0%
    No. of Institutional Holders2,563
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    LLY
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders5,580
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    FDX
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    DIETRICH JOHN W
    Chief Financial Officer
    $273,980
    @ $273.98 · 2025-01-07
    LANE AMY BETH
    Director
    $91,929
    @ $276.06 · 2024-12-26
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    LLY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    8
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.54M
    MONTARCE LUCAS E
    Chief Financial Officer
    $494,627
    @ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
    VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
    Officer
    $647,360
    @ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
    ALVAREZ RALPH
    Director
    $500,473
    @ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
    FYRWALD J. ERIK
    Director
    $1.01M
    @ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
    RICKS DAVID A
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.05M
    @ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
    SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
    Officer
    $634,405
    @ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
    SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
    Director
    $75,018
    @ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
    JACKSON JAMERE
    Director
    $127,913
    @ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    FDX
    5
    Sells (3M)
    9
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $21.67M
    BRIGHTMAN TRACY B
    Officer
    $6.16M
    @ $363.47 · 2026-04-15
    SCHWAB SUSAN C
    Director
    $2.14M
    @ $369.00 · 2026-04-15
    CARERE BRIE
    Officer
    $999,068
    @ $370.03 · 2026-04-14
    ADAMS GINA F
    General Counsel
    $7.49M
    @ $366.45 · 2026-04-14
    PREET KAWAL
    Officer
    $1.80M
    @ $367.89 · 2026-04-14
    RAMO JOSHUA COOPER
    Director
    $838,361
    @ $232.23 · 2025-07-23
    ELLISON MARVIN R
    Director
    $855,353
    @ $236.94 · 2025-07-09
    WALSH PAUL S
    Director
    $860,241
    @ $238.29 · 2025-07-08
    MARTIN ROBERT BRAD
    Director
    $513,235
    @ $241.75 · 2025-07-07
    SMITH JOHN ALAN
    Officer
    $1.50M
    @ $243.55 · 2025-03-27
    ADAMS GINA F
    General Counsel
    $1.15M
    @ $241.85 · 2025-03-24
    SCHWAB SUSAN C
    Director
    $1.10M
    @ $276.45 · 2025-01-14
    SMITH RICHARD W.
    Officer
    $713,373
    @ $276.93 · 2025-01-07
    CARERE BRIE
    Officer
    $607,822
    @ $310.43 · 2024-07-18
    KRISHNASAMY SRIRAM
    Officer
    $2.61M
    @ $310.14 · 2024-07-17
    ELLISON MARVIN R
    Director
    $758,831
    @ $299.34 · 2024-07-11
    ERWIN GUY M II
    Officer
    $34,712
    @ $299.24 · 2024-07-03
    STEINER DAVID P
    Director
    $407,561
    @ $297.71 · 2024-07-02
    ALLEN MARK RUSSELL
    General Counsel
    $23.04M
    @ $295.70 · 2024-06-28
    CARTER ROBERT B
    Chief Technology Officer
    $4.71M
    @ $294.48 · 2024-06-28
    WALSH PAUL S
    Director
    $747,126
    @ $294.72 · 2024-06-28
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    LLY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    41
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $3.86B
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $2.88M
    @ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $15.75M
    @ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $322.38M
    @ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $1.51M
    @ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.90M
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $2.85M
    @ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260,409
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.08M
    @ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $17.34M
    @ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $152.06M
    @ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $111.50M
    @ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $39.07M
    @ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $176.10M
    @ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $62.31M
    @ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $10.19M
    @ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $183.33M
    @ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $48.02M
    @ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $308.41M
    @ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $279.35M
    @ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $16.41M
    @ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $167.09M
    @ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $38.47M
    @ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $479,038
    @ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $266.65M
    @ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260.17M
    @ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.16M
    @ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $9.04M
    @ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.23M
    @ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $22.72M
    @ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $137.04M
    @ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.22M
    @ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $92.50M
    @ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $107.36M
    @ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $177.29M
    @ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.79M
    @ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $18.06M
    @ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $81.53M
    @ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $734,930
    @ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $783,762
    @ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $225.42M
    @ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $716,410
    @ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $936,550
    @ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    FDX
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    LLY
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    FDX
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    LLY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    View FDX Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: FDX vs LLY

    Is FedEx Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to FDX's -142.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $134 vs. $326).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, FedEx Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while FDX scores 54/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is FedEx Corporation in financial distress?▼

    FDX's Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, FedEx Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    FedEx Corporation (FDX) generates a 3.8% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, FedEx Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus FDX's 7.0%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, FedEx Corporation's or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

    FDX's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). FDX has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

    FDX vs LLY: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io