Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) vs ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, EXPE is undervalued at $282, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1028 and a margin of safety of 73%. NOW is overvalued at $140, with an intrinsic value of $84 and a margin of safety of -67%. Of the two, EXPE has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Gross margin of 90.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★FCF yield of 10.1% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.76 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Gross margin of 74.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 27.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.22 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $3.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 3 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $282?
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $140?
The market implies +27.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +12.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Insufficient data for Economic Moat Score calculation (requires 3+ years).
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →Insufficient data for Beneish M-Score calculation (requires 2+ years).
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: EXPE vs NOW
Is Expedia Group, Inc. or ServiceNow, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, EXPE trades at a 72.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1028 vs. price $282), compared to NOW's -66.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $84 vs. $140).
Which company has better free cash flow, Expedia Group, Inc. or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) generates a 10.1% free cash flow yield, compared to ServiceNow, Inc.'s 3.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Expedia Group, Inc. or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼
EXPE earns 28.8% ROIC versus NOW's 2.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.