Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) vs Intel Corporation (INTC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, EXPD is overvalued at $161, with a DCF intrinsic value of $101 and a margin of safety of -60%. INTC is overvalued at $134, with an intrinsic value of $8 and a margin of safety of -1513%. Of the two, EXPD has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 13% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 13.6% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 26.1x is 28% above the historical average of 20.5x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 3.77 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Intel Corporation scores only 17/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 21% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $6.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $161?
The market implies +10.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +11.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: EXPD vs INTC
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. or Intel Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, EXPD trades at a -59.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $101 vs. price $161), compared to INTC's -1512.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $8 vs. $134).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. or Intel Corporation?▼
EXPD scores 69/100 (Narrow moat), while INTC scores 17/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Intel Corporation in financial distress?▼
INTC's Altman Z-Score of 2.1 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. EXPD scores 8.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. or Intel Corporation?▼
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) generates a 3.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Intel Corporation's -1.2%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. or Intel Corporation?▼
EXPD earns 32.8% ROIC versus INTC's 1.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.