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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) vs Intel Corporation (INTC)

EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
$100.77
VS
INTC
Intel Corporation
$95.78

Risks

EXE
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 14.7 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Expand Energy Corporation scores only 21/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
  • ⚠Share count has increased by 78% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
INTC
  • ⚠Intel Corporation scores only 17/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.

Key Valuation Metrics

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EXE
INTC
Valuation
$1.70B
Free Cash Flow
$-8.30B
7.03%
FCF Yield
-1.72%
7.50
Trailing P/E
N/A
10.32
Forward P/E
64.22
Quality & Moat
14.16%
ROIC
1.72%
9.31%
ROE
-0.21%
47.95%
Gross Margin
37.20%
23.13
PEG Ratio
1.36
Balance Sheet Safety
0.26
Debt / Equity
0.36
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.38
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.86
3.19%
Dividend Yield
N/A
EXE: 8Ties: 1INTC: 1
EXEINTC

Historical Fundamentals

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EXE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

INTC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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EXE
$7.27
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$1.88B
Δ Market Cap
+$13.69B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
INTC
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-22.02B
Δ Market Cap
+$74.94B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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EXE
26.2% Margin of Safety
Price is 26.2% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $100.77
Fair Value: $136.49
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
INTC
Insufficient Data
Enter initial FCF to calculate intrinsic value
Current Price: $95.78
Fair Value: $0.00
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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EXE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $101?

+4.6%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market above historical growth — verify catalysts.

INTC

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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EXE
21/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
INTC
17/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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EXE
-2.06
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
INTC
-2.59
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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EXE
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 94.6%Retail & Other 5.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,184
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
INTC
Insiders 13.0%Institutions 61.8%Retail & Other 25.2%
No. of Institutional Holders3,201
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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EXE
2
Buys (3M)
4
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $739,630
WICHTERICH MICHAEL A.
Chief Executive Officer
$215,000
@ $107.50 · 2026-03-06
GALLAGHER MATTHEW
Director
$100,660
@ $100.66 · 2026-02-19
VIETS JOSHUA J
Chief Operating Officer
$184,320
@ $92.16 · 2025-08-18
DELL'OSSO DOMENIC J. JR.
Chief Executive Officer
$239,650
@ $95.86 · 2025-08-15
DELL'OSSO DOMENIC J. JR.
Chief Executive Officer
$248,750
@ $99.50 · 2025-03-05
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
INTC
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $249,985
ZINSNER DAVID A
Chief Financial Officer
$249,985
@ $42.50 · 2026-01-26
GELSINGER PATRICK P
Chief Executive Officer
$251,198
@ $22.53 · 2024-11-04
GELSINGER PATRICK P
Chief Executive Officer
$251,946
@ $20.16 · 2024-08-05
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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EXE
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
KEHR CATHERINE A
Director
$4.34M
@ $99.58 · 2024-11-22
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
INTC
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $981,000
MILLER BOISE APRIL
Officer
$981,000
@ $49.05 · 2026-02-02
HOLTHAUS MICHELLE JOHNSTON
General Counsel
$650,000
@ $26.00 · 2024-11-07
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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EXE
FearGreed
😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
INTC
FearGreed
😏Greed(71/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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EXE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)
INTC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (71)
View EXE Full AnalysisView INTC Full Analysis