Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) vs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, EXE is overvalued at $88, with a DCF intrinsic value of $59 and a margin of safety of -49%. GS is undervalued at $937, with an intrinsic value of $1956 and a margin of safety of 52%. Of the two, GS has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★6 insider purchases over the past 12 months with a buy/sell ratio above 3:1 — a sustained pattern of insider confidence.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.88 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Gross margin of 82.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 11% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.58 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 14.6 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Expand Energy Corporation scores only 21/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 78% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.25 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠16 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $88?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: EXE vs GS
Is Expand Energy Corporation or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, GS trades at a 52.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1956 vs. price $937), compared to EXE's -48.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $59 vs. $88).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Expand Energy Corporation or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.?▼
GS scores 65/100 (Narrow moat), while EXE scores 21/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. in financial distress?▼
GS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. EXE scores 2.6 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Expand Energy Corporation or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.?▼
EXE earns 11.4% ROIC versus GS's 2.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Expand Energy Corporation's or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s?▼
EXE's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to GS's 79/100 (Safe). EXE has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.