Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) vs Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, ERIE is undervalued at $244, with a DCF intrinsic value of $600 and a margin of safety of 59%. ORCL is undervalued at $151, with an intrinsic value of $386 and a margin of safety of 61%. Of the two, ORCL has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Erie Indemnity Company scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 24.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Gross margin of 64.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.80 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 17.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.67 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠High leverage (1.97x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.73 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $244?
The market implies +9.2% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +11.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: ERIE vs ORCL
Is Erie Indemnity Company or Oracle Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ORCL trades at a 60.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $386 vs. price $151), compared to ERIE's 59.4% margin of safety (intrinsic $600 vs. $244).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Erie Indemnity Company or Oracle Corporation?▼
ERIE scores 94/100 (Wide moat), while ORCL scores 67/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼
ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 1.7 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. ERIE scores 11.1 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Erie Indemnity Company or Oracle Corporation?▼
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) generates a 3.8% free cash flow yield, compared to Oracle Corporation's -10.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Erie Indemnity Company or Oracle Corporation?▼
ERIE earns 24.6% ROIC versus ORCL's 8.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Erie Indemnity Company's or Oracle Corporation's?▼
ERIE's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to ORCL's 79/100 (Safe). ERIE has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.