Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) vs Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, ERIE is undervalued at $221, with a DCF intrinsic value of $600 and a margin of safety of 63%. JNJ is fairly valued at $228, with an intrinsic value of $281 and a margin of safety of 19%. Of the two, ERIE has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Erie Indemnity Company scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 24.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Johnson & Johnson has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 68.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Johnson & Johnson scores 90/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 17.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.67 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 26.5x is 33% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 3.06 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $2.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $221?
The market implies +7.9% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +10.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $228?
The market implies +7.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: ERIE vs JNJ
Is Erie Indemnity Company or Johnson & Johnson more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ERIE trades at a 63.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $600 vs. price $221), compared to JNJ's 18.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $281 vs. $228).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Erie Indemnity Company or Johnson & Johnson?▼
ERIE scores 94/100 (Wide moat), while JNJ scores 90/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Erie Indemnity Company or Johnson & Johnson?▼
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) generates a 3.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Johnson & Johnson's 3.5%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Erie Indemnity Company or Johnson & Johnson?▼
ERIE earns 22.7% ROIC versus JNJ's 15.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Erie Indemnity Company's or Johnson & Johnson's?▼
ERIE's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to JNJ's 79/100 (Safe). ERIE has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.