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Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) vs Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
$240.93
VS
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$307.13

Rewards

ERIE
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 24.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.22 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

ERIE
  • ⚠Gross margin of 17.6% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
GOOGL
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ERIE
GOOGL
Valuation
$499.90M
Free Cash Flow
$73.27B
3.97%
FCF Yield
1.97%
22.52
Trailing P/E
28.41
17.20
Forward P/E
22.88
Quality & Moat
23.51%
ROIC
20.83%
24.49%
ROE
31.83%
17.63%
Gross Margin
59.65%
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.91
Balance Sheet Safety
0.03
Debt / Equity
0.16
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.36
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.40
2.43%
Dividend Yield
0.27%
ERIE: 6Ties: 1GOOGL: 4
ERIEGOOGL

Historical Fundamentals

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ERIE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

GOOGL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ERIE
$2.22
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$892.3M
Δ Market Cap
+$1.98B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
GOOGL
$9.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$288.67B
Δ Market Cap
+$2.65T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ERIE
42.3% Overvalued
Price is 42.3% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $240.93
Fair Value: $169.26
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
GOOGL
20.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 20.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $307.13
Fair Value: $384.04
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ERIE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $241?

+9.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +10.5%

The market implies +9.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +10.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

GOOGL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $307?

+12.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +20.2%

The market implies +12.1% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +20.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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ERIE
38/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
GOOGL
89/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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ERIE
-2.59
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
GOOGL
-2.92
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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ERIE
Insiders 45.5%Institutions 45.9%Retail & Other 8.7%
No. of Institutional Holders624
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
GOOGL
Insiders 0.6%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 18.6%
No. of Institutional Holders7,206
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ERIE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
GOOGL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ERIE
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
GOOGL
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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ERIE
FearGreed
😨Fear(23/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
GOOGL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(60/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ERIE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (23)
GOOGL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (60)
View ERIE Full AnalysisView GOOGL Full Analysis
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) vs Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Stock Comparison | SafetyMargin.io