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Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T (EL) vs Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, EL is undervalued at $84, with a DCF intrinsic value of $131122503938 and a margin of safety of 100%. ORCL is undervalued at $130, with an intrinsic value of $404 and a margin of safety of 68%. Of the two, EL has the wider margin of safety.

EL
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T
$83.90
VS
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
$129.87

Rewards

EL
  • ★Gross margin of 74.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
ORCL
  • ★Gross margin of 65.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.80 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

EL
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 15.4 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.05 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠High leverage (1.55x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
ORCL
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠High leverage (3.15x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.4x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.

Key Valuation Metrics

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EL
ORCL
Valuation
$1.81B
Free Cash Flow
$-24.54B
N/A
FCF Yield
-6.56%
N/A
Trailing P/E
22.28
26.38
Forward P/E
11.93
Quality & Moat
13.16%
ROIC
9.15%
-5.95%
ROE
53.38%
74.65%
Gross Margin
65.82%
2.05
PEG Ratio
0.73
Balance Sheet Safety
1.55
Net Debt / Equity
3.15
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.63
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.44
1.67%
Dividend Yield
1.54%
EL: 6Ties: 1ORCL: 3
ELORCL

Historical Fundamentals

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EL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

ORCL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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EL
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-2.23B
Δ Market Cap
$-143.39
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
ORCL
$3.51
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$25.08B
Δ Market Cap
+$87.99B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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EL
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $83.90
Fair Value: $131122503937.78
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
ORCL
67.8% Margin of Safety
Price is 67.8% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $129.87
Fair Value: $403.51
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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EL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $84?

-18.4%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market roughly matching historical growth — reasonable.

ORCL

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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EL
36/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
ORCL
67/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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EL
-2.75
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
ORCL
-2.58
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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EL
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 97.1%Retail & Other 2.5%
No. of Institutional Holders1,300
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
ORCL
Insiders 40.5%Institutions 43.9%Retail & Other 15.6%
No. of Institutional Holders4,502
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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EL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
FRIBOURG PAUL J
Director
$2.96M
@ $65.00 · 2025-02-07
FRIBOURG PAUL J
Director
$5.72M
@ $65.80 · 2025-02-06
SHRIVASTAVA AKHIL
Chief Financial Officer
$46,053
@ $65.79 · 2025-02-05
FRIBOURG PAUL J
Director
$5.02M
@ $64.48 · 2024-11-19
FRIBOURG PAUL J
Director
$9.86M
@ $64.46 · 2024-11-18
FRIBOURG PAUL J
Director
$10.05M
@ $63.98 · 2024-11-14
SHRIVASTAVA AKHIL
Chief Financial Officer
$65,000
@ $65.00 · 2024-11-14
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
ORCL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
FAIRHEAD RONA ALISON
Director
$112,258
@ $233.87 · 2025-07-07
MOORMAN CHARLES W IV
Director
$947,913
@ $172.35 · 2025-02-12
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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EL
0
Sells (3M)
10
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.02B
LA LANDE RASHIDA K
General Counsel
$151,498
@ $94.45 · 2025-11-26
LAUDER JANE A
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.68M
@ $94.38 · 2025-11-26
WEBSTER MERIDITH P
Officer
$476,971
@ $87.84 · 2025-11-18
STERNLICHT BARRY S
Director
$364,749
@ $91.83 · 2025-11-11
LAL 2015 ELF TRUST
Trustee
$508.60M
@ $89.70 · 2025-11-06
EVELYN H. LAUDER 2012 MARITAL TRUST TWO
Trustee
$255.22M
@ $89.70 · 2025-11-06
LEONARD A LAUDER 2013 REVOCABLE TRUST
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$249.91M
@ $89.70 · 2025-11-06
FORESTER LYNN
Director
$339,288
@ $91.65 · 2025-08-29
LA LANDE RASHIDA K
General Counsel
$589,594
@ $91.88 · 2025-08-28
LAUDER JANE A
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.39M
@ $88.23 · 2025-08-21
FREDA FABRIZIO
Chief Executive Officer
$743,259
@ $67.76 · 2024-11-01
FORESTER LYNN
Director
$364,143
@ $93.61 · 2024-08-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
ORCL
1
Sells (3M)
15
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $126.77M
HENLEY JEFFREY O
Officer and Director
$63.66M
@ $159.16 · 2026-06-24
LEVEY STUART A
Officer
$2.64M
@ $176.19 · 2026-04-16
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$1.55M
@ $155.23 · 2026-02-09
KEHRING DOUGLAS A
Officer
$6.82M
@ $194.89 · 2026-01-15
HURA MARK
Officer
$2.95M
@ $196.89 · 2025-12-24
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$437,064
@ $196.61 · 2025-12-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$1.93M
@ $192.52 · 2025-12-19
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$2.80M
@ $280.31 · 2025-10-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$11.07M
@ $276.64 · 2025-10-21
LEVEY STUART A
Officer
$5.93M
@ $300.00 · 2025-10-10
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$641,958
@ $288.91 · 2025-09-26
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$10.87M
@ $321.16 · 2025-09-23
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$5.12M
@ $313.60 · 2025-09-16
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
President
$6.31M
@ $297.11 · 2025-09-12
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$4.04M
@ $254.48 · 2025-08-05
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$770,656
@ $233.32 · 2025-07-16
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$2.33M
@ $232.99 · 2025-07-03
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$267.24M
@ $212.01 · 2025-06-27
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$794.64M
@ $212.50 · 2025-06-26
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$764.01M
@ $206.77 · 2025-06-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Officer
$3.21M
@ $214.10 · 2025-06-17
CONRADES GEORGE HENRY
Director
$1.74M
@ $213.49 · 2025-06-17
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$428,562
@ $149.53 · 2025-05-05
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$291,620
@ $145.81 · 2025-04-02
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$705.46M
@ $185.40 · 2025-01-24
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$1.04M
@ $165.00 · 2024-09-16
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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EL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(46/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
ORCL
FearGreed
😨Fear(33/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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EL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)
ORCL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (33)
View EL Full AnalysisView ORCL Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: EL vs ORCL

Is Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T or Oracle Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, EL trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $131122503938 vs. price $84), compared to ORCL's 67.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $404 vs. $130).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T or Oracle Corporation?▼

ORCL scores 67/100 (Narrow moat), while EL scores 36/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼

ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 1.6 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. EL scores 1.8 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T or Oracle Corporation?▼

EL earns 13.2% ROIC versus ORCL's 9.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's or Oracle Corporation's?▼

ORCL's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to EL's 35/100 (Unsafe). ORCL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

EL vs ORCL: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io