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Compare Stocks › EFX vs LLY

Equifax Inc. (EFX) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, EFX is undervalued at $154, with a DCF intrinsic value of $273 and a margin of safety of 44%. LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with an intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. Of the two, EFX has the wider margin of safety.

EFX
Equifax Inc.
$153.93
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57

Rewards

EFX
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 104.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.95 of earning power — management is creating shareholder value.
  • ★Trailing P/E of 27.1x is 41% below the historical average of 45.6x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

EFX
  • ⚠FCF yield of 5.5% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $7.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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EFX
LLY
Valuation
$1.02B
Free Cash Flow
$9.16B
5.52%
FCF Yield
0.93%
27.10
Trailing P/E
39.00
14.99
Forward P/E
24.69
Quality & Moat
8.67%
ROIC
37.80%
14.37%
ROE
107.46%
56.12%
Gross Margin
82.83%
1.65
PEG Ratio
1.50
Balance Sheet Safety
1.09
Net Debt / Equity
1.22
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.66
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.05
1.34%
Dividend Yield
0.56%
EFX: 5Ties: 1LLY: 6
EFXLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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EFX

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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EFX
$1.94
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$1.19B
Δ Market Cap
+$2.32B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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EFX
43.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 43.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $153.93
Fair Value: $273.09
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
3.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1143.11
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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EFX

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $154?

+11.3%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +9.7%

The market implies +11.3% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +9.7%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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EFX
62/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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EFX
-2.83
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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EFX
Insiders 0.6%Institutions 105.3%
No. of Institutional Holders1,231
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,580
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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EFX
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $464,928
MAO CECILIA H.
Officer
$464,928
@ $193.72 · 2026-02-18
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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EFX
3
Sells (3M)
11
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $32.11M
BORTON CHAD M
Officer
$426,900
@ $173.89 · 2026-05-07
GAMBLE JOHN W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$617,890
@ $176.54 · 2026-05-01
BEGOR MARK W.
Chief Executive Officer
$6.52M
@ $172.40 · 2026-04-24
GAMBLE JOHN W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$880,740
@ $195.72 · 2026-02-23
BORTON CHAD M
Officer
$485,452
@ $191.50 · 2026-02-12
FARSHCHI JAMIL
Chief Technology Officer
$1.45M
@ $196.45 · 2026-02-11
BEGOR MARK W.
Chief Executive Officer
$7.63M
@ $201.89 · 2026-02-10
GAMBLE JOHN W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$520,925
@ $208.37 · 2025-11-20
FARSHCHI JAMIL
Chief Technology Officer
$1.18M
@ $238.94 · 2025-10-27
GAMBLE JOHN W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$742,050
@ $247.35 · 2025-08-18
BEGOR MARK W.
Chief Executive Officer
$11.67M
@ $241.71 · 2025-07-28
GAMBLE JOHN W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$518,200
@ $259.10 · 2025-05-06
BEGOR MARK W.
Chief Executive Officer
$5.69M
@ $256.61 · 2025-04-28
GAMBLE JOHN W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$848,085
@ $242.31 · 2025-02-28
BEGOR MARK W.
Chief Executive Officer
$5.60M
@ $252.63 · 2025-02-13
FARSHCHI JAMIL
Chief Technology Officer
$4.69M
@ $248.18 · 2025-02-12
NELSON LISA M
Officer
$136,995
@ $248.18 · 2025-02-12
FARSHCHI JAMIL
Chief Technology Officer
$3.83M
@ $260.39 · 2024-11-26
NELSON LISA M
Officer
$143,475
@ $260.39 · 2024-11-26
KELLEY JOHN J III
Officer
$272,920
@ $272.92 · 2024-10-25
BEGOR MARK W.
Chief Executive Officer
$15.77M
@ $270.49 · 2024-10-25
KELLEY JOHN J III
Officer
$914,977
@ $304.99 · 2024-08-28
CHANEY CARLA
Officer
$845,544
@ $281.85 · 2024-08-07
CHANEY CARLA
Officer
$838,440
@ $279.48 · 2024-08-01
GAMBLE JOHN W JR
Chief Operating Officer
$373,260
@ $276.49 · 2024-07-30
BEGOR MARK W.
Chief Executive Officer
$15.71M
@ $269.47 · 2024-07-26
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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EFX
FearGreed
😨Fear(26/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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EFX
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (26)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
View EFX Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: EFX vs LLY

Is Equifax Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, EFX trades at a 43.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $273 vs. price $154), compared to LLY's 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $1143 vs. $1099).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Equifax Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while EFX scores 62/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Equifax Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

Equifax Inc. (EFX) generates a 5.5% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Equifax Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus EFX's 8.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Equifax Inc.'s or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

EFX's dividend earns a safety score of 91/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). EFX has raised its dividend for 2 consecutive years.